荔枝包装的风险识别与分析  

Risk Identification and Analysis of Litchi Packaging

作　　者：邹炽导[1,2,3] 陆华忠[1,2] 吕恩利[1,2] 曾志雄[1,2] 杨松夏[1] ZOU Chi-dao LU Hua-zhong LYU En-li ZENG Zhi-xiong YANG Song-xia(South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China Guangdong Engineering Research Center of Agricultural Product Cold Chain Logistics, Guangzhou 510642, China Education Examinations Authority of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510631, China)

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学,广州510642 [2]广东省农产品冷链物流工程技术研究中心,广州510642 [3]广东省教育考试院,广州510631

出　　处：《包装工程》2017年第9期46-52,共7页Packaging Engineering

基　　金：现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-33-13);国家科技支撑计划(2013BAD19B01)

摘　　要：目的解决在荔枝包装过程中风险源难于辨识及定量分析的难题。方法提出一种基于霍尔三维因素空间和模糊故障树的风险识别与定量分析方法。构建荔枝包装的安全事件、时空结构(工位)、事故致因等3个维度的因素集,通过矩阵之间的映射关系和计算分析得到风险基本事件集合。建立荔枝包装的故障树模型,并对风险基本事件进行专家问卷评价。采用梯形模糊数及左右模糊排序法将专家的评判语言转化为风险概率值。结果经计算得到荔枝包装事故发生概率(0.0409)及风险基本事件的概率重要度。结论提出了强化标准化建设,加大技术投入等防范风险事故发生的措施。The work aims to solve the problem of difficult identification of risk sources and quantitative analysis in the process of litchi packaging.A method based on Hall three-dimensional space and fuzzy fault tree was proposed to solve risk identification and quantitative analysis problems.The factor sets of litchi packaging including such three dimensions as security incidents, space-time structures（work positions） and accident causes were constructed.The basic set of risk events was obtained through the mapping relation between the matrices and the calculation and analysis.The fault tree model of litchi packaging was established, and the expert questionnaire of basic risk events was evaluated.By using the trapezoidal fuzzy number and the left and right fuzzy sorting method, the expert＇s judgment language was transformed into the risk probability value.The importance of the probability of occurrence of litchi packaging accidents（0.0409） and the probability of the basic risk events was calculated.The measures such as strengthening the standardization construction and increasing investment in technology to prevent the occurrence of risk accidents were put forward.

关 键 词：荔枝 包装 风险识别 风险分析 

分 类 号：TS206.6[轻工技术与工程—食品科学]