张家港永嘉集装箱码头集装箱吞吐量组合预测  

Combination Forecasting of Container Throughput of Zhangjiagang Yongjia Container Port

作　　者：余国刚[1] 冯琪[1] 徐粉[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学交通学院,湖北武汉430063

出　　处：《物流技术》2017年第4期103-107,共5页Logistics Technology

摘　　要：应用灰色预测模型、二次指数平滑法、BP神经网络预测模型等单项预测方法分别对张家港永嘉集装箱码头集装箱吞吐量进行预测,基于方差倒数法求取每个单一模型的权重,并构建组合预测模型。选择预测误差最小的组合预测模型对集装箱吞吐量进行预测,得出2016年和2017年的集装箱吞吐量预测值。In this paper, we used the grey forecasting model, second exponential smooth method, BP neural network forecasting model, etc., to forecast the container throughput of the ZhangjiagangYongjia container port respectively, then based on the inverse variance method, obtained the weight of each model to build the combination forecasting model, and at the end, after identifying and using the combination forecasting model with the least forecasting error to forecast the container throughput of the port arrived at the forecast container throughput of the port for 2016 and 2017.

关 键 词：张家湾永嘉集装箱码头 集装箱吞吐量 灰色预测 二次指数平滑 BP神经网络 组合预测 

分 类 号：U169.6[交通运输工程] F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]