突变综合评价理论在滑坡体安全分析中的应用  

Application of catastrophe comprehensive assessment theory in landslip safety analysis

作　　者：胡德秀[1,2] 米艳芳 杨杰[1] 李斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048 [2]西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室培育基地(西安理工大学),陕西西安710048 [3]云南省水利水电勘测设计研究院,云南昆明650021

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第5期228-234,共7页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41301597);西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室培育基地(西安理工大学)开放基金项目(2016ZZKT-8);陕西省重点科技创新团队项目(2013KCT-015);陕西省教育厅基金项目(13JK0848)

摘　　要：【目的】克服目前滑坡安全评价中直接使用权重进行分析的主观性弊端,寻求边坡预测预报的新途径。【方法】以突变理论为基础,基于滑坡体的长期监测资料,建立边坡安全稳定的综合评价体系,通过构建评价指标体系、确定底层评价指标的评分、进行归一运算等逐级向上确定指标体系各突变隶属度的值,实现对系统的总突变过程的综合评价。【结果】提出了边坡安全稳定的突变综合评价法,并构建了边坡安全的综合评价体系。实例应用表明,该工程滑坡体总突变值随时间呈现逐渐平稳的变化趋势,但与其他年份相比,1990年和1995年的总突变值分别为0.94和0.97,出现明显突变异常,其评价结果与该工程的定检报告结果一致。【结论】突变综合评价法合理可行,能较客观、全面地反映滑坡体的实际运行情况,在及早发现滑坡失稳隐患、保证滑坡体正常稳定运行方面有实用价值。[Objective] In order to overcome the subjectivity of using weight directly in current safety assessment of landslide,new ways to predict the slope were seeked. [Method] Based on catastrophe theory and long-term monitoring data, this paper established a comprehensive assessment system for safety and stability of slope. By building the assessment index system, confirming the underlayer index score, normali- zation calculation, and confirming the value of each mutation membership degree of the index system, the comprehensive assessment on the process of total catastrophe was realized. [Result] This paper proposed a catastrophe comprehensive assessment method and constructed a comprehensive assessment system for slope safety. Application examples showed that the total catastrophe data of landslide tended to be smooth gradually with time. Comparing with other years,the total catastrophe data of 1990 and 1995 were 0.94 and 0.97,indicating abnormal catastrophe. The assessment results agreed well with security report. [Conclusion] The catastrophe comprehensive assessment method is feasible, and can reflect the actual operation ofthe landslide objectively and comprehensively. It is of practical value to find the hidden danger of landslide timely and to ensure the operation of landslide normallyand steadily.

关 键 词：滑坡体 安全稳定 综合评价 突变理论 

分 类 号：TV698[水利工程—水利水电工程]