基于地理加权回归模型的塔里木河流域农业气候资源研究  

Research on Agricultural Climate Resources in the Tarim River Basin by the Geographical Weighted Regression Model

作　　者：侯瑞环 徐翔燕[1] 康顺光[1] 贾佳[1] 

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学信息工程学院,新疆阿拉尔843300

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2017年第8期93-99,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：塔里木大学校长基金青年创新资金项目"基于模糊数学的塔里木河流域农业气候资源评价研究"(TDZKQN201507)

摘　　要：以塔里木河流域农业气候资源为研究对象,通过收集该流域38个县市地区1995-2014年的气象、地理及经济方面的指标数据,运用R软件对其进行因子分析,得出年平均气温对该流域种植业具有明显的影响.然后,建立了地理加权回归模型,对收集的指标数据进行分析,研究该流域农业气候资源空间聚集与差异.结果表明:农业气候资源对塔河流域农业生产存在明显的空间影响.最后,为流域农作物的合理种植给出建议.Take the agricultural climate resources in the Tarim River Basin as research object, the paper uses R software to analyze the indicators data of meteorological, geog- raphy and economic from 38 counties or cities in Tarim River Basin during 1995-2014 by factor analysis, which can gets annual average temperature have obvious effect on the plant industry in the basin. Then the paper establishes a geographical weighted regression model to analyze the indicators data for the research on the spatial aggregation and difference of the agricultural climate resources in the basin. The results show that agricultural climate resources have obvious spatial effect on the agricultural production in the basin. Finally, Given reasonable suggestion for the rational cultivation of crops in the basin.

关 键 词：塔里木河流域 农业气候资源 地理加权回归模型 因子分析 空间聚集 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计]