登记入住概率分布已知条件下酒店客房的超售策略研究  

Research on Overbooking Strategy of Room Reservation with Distribution of Check-in Known

作　　者：周世平[1] ZHOU Shiping(Guangzhnu Railway Occupational Technology Institute, Guangzhnu 510430, China)

机构地区：[1]广州铁路职业技术学院,广东广州510430

出　　处：《工业工程》2017年第2期14-18,共5页Industrial Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家旅游局旅游业青年专家培养计划资助项目(TYETP201545);广东省教育厅优秀青年教师培养资助项目(YQ2015209);教育部人文社会科学研究一般资助项目(11YJA630063);广东省哲学社会科学"十二五"规划资助项目(GD13XGL44);广州市哲学社会科学发展"十三五"规划资助项目(2016GZQN30)

摘　　要：互联网的普及应用,使得酒店客房传统的销售模式不断被网络的销售模式所取代,网络预订已成为酒店客房销售的主要方式。但网络预订需求的不确定性,No-Show现象时常出现,酒店空房率居高不下,直接影响了酒店的营业利润。为提高酒店客房的入住率,酒店管理者往往在预订期内采取超售策略,以弥补因游客No-Show给酒店带来的损失。本文假设旅客登记入住率r概率分布已知情况下,通过最大化期望收益优化处理模型,得出酒店客房最优的超订水平,在此基础上,对酒店最优超订水平的影响因素进行了灵敏度分析。With the universal application of the Internet, the traditional marketing models have been replaced by network marketing model, and room reservation online has become the mainstream of the time. Because the demand uncertainty in online room reservation leads to No-Show, hotel vacancy rate remains high, reducing the hotel＇s operating profit. In order to improve the hotel room occupancy rate, overbooking strategy has been used to room reservation in the pre-sale period. Assuming that Probability distribution information of check-in rate is known, the optimal level of overbooking has been obtained in the pre-sale period by maximizing the expected revenue optimization model, and a sensitivity analysis has been made of factors that affect the optimal level of overbooking.

关 键 词：登记入住 客房预订 超售策略 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]