松花湖地区日总辐射计算模型的参数估算  

Estimation of Parameters in Daily Total Solar Radiation Model for Lake Songhua Region

作　　者：邱敏[1] 陈鸣渊[2] 罗潋葱[3] 李慧赟[3] 戴淑君[3] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学生态学系,广东广州510632 [2]杭州市环境监测中心站,浙江杭州310007 [3]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《生态与农村环境学报》2017年第5期474-480,共7页Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41671205);国家自然科学基金青年基金(41301022);中新国际合作项目(2014DFG91780)

摘　　要：松花湖地区日总辐射数据缺乏,导致该地区日总辐射计算模型研究领域存在空缺。为此,笔者对基于日照时数的松花湖日总辐射计算模型进行了参数估算。在概述当前基于日照时数的日总辐射计算方法及公式基础上,采用长春和延吉2个站点1961—2000年逐日日总辐射和日照时数数据,借助广义模式搜索算法确定模型参数,再利用2001—2012年日照时数和日总辐射数据进行验证。验证结果表明,日总辐射模型的模拟值与实测值拟合程度较好,2个站点的Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(NSE)分别为0.93和0.94,均方根误差(RMSE)分别为22.39和19.53 W·m^(-2),从而计算得到两地日总辐射计算模型的经验参数as和bs。由于松花湖地区特殊的地理位置,这2个地区的as和bs平均值可作为松花湖日总辐射计算模型的经验参数,分别为0.164 34和0.591 02。对松花湖日总辐射与日照时数进行分析,发现松花湖日总辐射与日照时数在多年和年内变化中均呈正比关系。近50 a来松花湖日总辐射总体呈减少趋势,且1982—2010年间日总辐射变化幅度比其他年份小,日照时数变化趋势与其类似。Lack of daily total solar radiation( DTSR) data for the Lake Songhua Region leaves a blank in the research on DTSR models for the region. Consequently,an attempt to estimate parameters in the DTSR model for the region based on hours of sunshine was taken. On the basis of generalization of methods and equations used currently for calculate of DTSR based on hours of sunshine,the 1961-2000 data of DTSR and daily number of sunshine hours recorded at Changchun and Yanji Stations were cited for calculation of parameters,using the generalized pattern search algorithm. The calculated parameters were then validated with the 2001-2012 data of DTSR and number of sunshine hours from the same cities. Verification demonstrates that the DTSR model performed well with fitting values being quite approximate to the observed values.The fitting was 0. 93 and 0. 94 in Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency( NSE) coefficient and 22.39 and 19. 53 W·m^(-2) in Root Mean Square Error( RMSE),respectively,at Changchun and Yanji. On such a basis,two empirical parameters,asand bsfor DTSR were figured out to be 0. 164 34 and 0. 591 02,respectively by regression. In view of the geographical location of the Lake Songhua Region,the mean of asand bscould be used as the empirical parameter of calculation of DTSR of the region.Analysis of the DTSR and hours of sunshine in the Lake Songhua Region reveals that DTSR is positively related to hours of sunshine at both multi-year and annual scales,DTSR in the Lake Songhua Region has been on a declining trend in the past50 years and the change was lower in 1982-2010 than in other years. The index of hours of sunshine followed a similar trend.

关 键 词：日总辐射 日照时数 模型 松花湖 

分 类 号：P422.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]