重庆市碳足迹与碳承载力变化特征及趋势预测  

Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Carbon Footprint and Carbon Carrying Capacity in Chongqing City

作　　者：陈川[1] 谢世友[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学,地理科学学院,重庆400715 [2]西南大学三峡库区生态环境教育部重点实验室,重庆400715

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2017年第7期1257-1261,共5页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题项目(2011BAC09B01,2006BAC01A16);重庆市自然科学基金重点项目(CSTC2009BA0002)

摘　　要：为了全面了解重庆市碳排放状况,通过碳足迹相关研究方法测算了重庆市1997-2013年的碳足迹和1999-2013年植被碳承载力,通过GM(1,1)灰色预测模型预测了2014-2018年重庆市的碳足迹变化趋势。结果表明,1997-2013年重庆市碳足迹总量从6 320.41万t增加到21 199.82万t,化石能源碳足迹是整个碳足迹的主要构成部分;1999-2013年,碳承载力从3 304.63万t增加到3 827.59万t,森林碳承载力是碳承载力主要构成部分;1999-2013年,人均碳足迹从2.49 t/人增加到6.31 t/人,单位面积碳足迹也由9.28 t/hm^2上升到25.73 t/hm2;万元GDP碳足迹下降到1.67 t。通过GM(1,1)模型预测到2014-2018年重庆市碳足迹将进一步增加,预计在2018年碳足迹将达到36 646.181 7万t。In order to know the situation of carbon emissions in Chongqing city, the carbon footprint（1997 to 2013） and the carbon carrying capacity（1999 to 2013） was estimated by IPCC method. In addition,GM（1,1） was used to predict the change trend of carbon footprint from 2014 to 2018. The results showed that, between 1997 and 2013, the carbon footprint grew from 63.2041 million tons to 211.9982 million tons,and fossil fuel was the main part of carbon footprint. Between 1999 to 2013, carbon carrying capacity grew from 33.0463 million tons to 38.2759 million tons, and forest carbon carrying capacity was the main part. Carbon footprint per capita increased from 2.49 tons to 6.31 tons from 1999 to 2013. Meanwhile,the unit area of carbon footprint raised from 9.28 ton/hm^2 to 25.73 ton/hm^2,and carbon footprint per ten thousand GDP dropped to 1.67 tons. According to GM （1,1） model, the carbon footprint of Chongqing will keep increasing from 2014 to 2018, and the carbon footprint will up to 366.461817 million tons in 2018.

关 键 词：碳足迹 碳承载力 灰色系统GM(1 1)预测模型 重庆市 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]