故障规律未知时的装备任务成功性评估方法  

Research on the method of equipment's dependability evaluation with an unknown failure distribution

作　　者：韩小孩[1] 张耀辉[1] 张仕新[1] 王少华[1] 

机构地区：[1]装甲兵工程学院技术保障工程系,北京100072

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2017年第6期1414-1419,共6页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：武器装备预研基金资助课题

摘　　要：针对装备故障规律不易获取以及传统任务成功性评估中未分析装备技术状态等问题,提出了一种技术状态与任务可靠度之间的转换方法。利用径向基神经网络对装备技术状态等级进行了评估,利用云模型对装备的任务可靠度进行了评估。以此为基础,结合维修时间约束条件评估了故障规律未知时的装备任务成功性。In order to solve the problems that the failure distribution is hard to be known and the technical condition is ignored when evaluating the equipment＇s dependability, a method which can exchange the technical condition with mission reliability is proposed. As the technical condition is recognized by using the method of radial basis function neural network, the mission reliability is evaluated by using the cloudy model. After all of this, equipment＇s dependability with an unknown failure distribution is evaluated within a steady time con- straint.

关 键 词：任务成功性 径向基神经网络 云模型 

分 类 号：E92[军事—军事装备学] TJ81[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]