住房公积金政策与缴存职工收益  

Housing Provident Fund Policy and Contributors' Gains

作　　者：徐跃进[1] 吴璟[1,2] 刘洪玉[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学建设管理系 [2]清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心

出　　处：《统计研究》2017年第5期49-58,共10页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"居住用地价格波动的轨迹度量;规律研究和影响分析"(71373006);重大研究计划培育项目"基于多维度大数据的住房抵押贷款风险管理决策支持研究"(91546113)资助

摘　　要：本文基于某典型城市微观数据,定量研究了公积金存贷款政策对缴存职工从公积金系统中获得的"互助收益"水平的影响规律。研究结果显示,公积金贷款利率对缴存职工提取公积金购房概率、申请公积金贷款概率和公积金贷款金额均存在显著的负向影响,公积金贷款限额则对缴存职工提取公积金购房概率和公积金贷款金额存在显著的正向影响,这些因素又进一步影响缴存职工从公积金系统中获得的互助收益水平。研究结果同时显示,现行公积金政策可能导致对缴存职工住房需求的支持力度不足和公平性不足两方面的问题。基于前述规律的政策模拟发现,通过不同的政策组合调整,有可能实现提高职工收益、刺激住房需求或改进公平性等特定政策目标。In this paper we empirically investigate the effect of housing provident fund （HPF） policy on contributors ＇ ＂equivalent gain＂ obtained from the HPF system, based on micro data from a representative major Chinese city. The results show that, the interest rate of HPF mortgage loan negatively affects the probability of fund withdrawal, the probability of applying for HPF loan, and the amount of HPF loan applied. Meanwhile, the ceiling on the amount of HPF loan has positive influence on both the probability of fund withdrawal and the amount of HPF loan applied. These policy factors can then further affect contributors＇ expected ＂equivalent gain＂ from the HPF system. The results also reveal two major problems in the current HPF system, including the insufficiency in supporting contributors＇ housing demand and the potential inequity. The policy simulation shows that the combination of some policy adjustments can help overcome these two problems by increasing contributors＇ gains, stimulating housing demand or improving the fairness status.

关 键 词：住房公积金 职工收益 政策模拟 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]