东北三省春玉米产量差时空分布特征  

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Yield Gaps of Spring Maize in Northeast China

作　　者：刘志娟[1] 杨晓光[1] 吕硕[1] 王静[1,2] LIN XiaoMao 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,中国北京100193 [2]宁夏气象科学研究所,中国银川750002 [3]Department of Agronomy,Kansas State University,2108 Throckmorton Hall,Plant Sciences Center

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2017年第9期1606-1616,共11页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(31471408;41401049);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0300101);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2014XJ030)

摘　　要：【目的】随着人口增加、气候变化和环境问题日益凸显,粮食生产能力及粮食安全受到广泛重视。然而,目前中国粮食产量远远低于作物潜在产量,如何利用有限耕地生产更多粮食已经成为中国农业目前面临的重大问题。东北三省是中国重要的玉米生产区,其春玉米产量占全国总产量的29%,该区玉米产量提升对中国粮食安全具有重要的意义。【方法】论文以东北三省春玉米种植区为研究区域,基于1961—2010年气候资料、农业气象观测站作物资料和统计资料,利用农业生产系统模拟模型(APSIM-Maize)和数理统计方法,解析气候变化背景下研究区域春玉米潜在产量与实际产量的差及各级产量差的时空分布特征,为提升东北三省春玉米产量提供科学依据和参考。【结果】东北三省春玉米潜在产量与农户实际产量之间产量差(总产量差)呈明显的经向和纬向分布(P<0.01),即由南向北递减,由西向东递减,且地区间差异较大,变化范围为4.8—11.9 t·hm^(-2)。春玉米潜在产量与可获得产量之间的产量差(产量差1)、可获得产量与农户潜在产量之间的产量差(产量差2)均呈现随经度升高而降低的趋势,这与春玉米生长季内降水量分布有关。产量差1变化范围在0.06—3.2 t·hm^(-2)之间,产量差2地区间差异较大,变化范围为1.7—8.0 t·hm^(-2),主要是由于栽培管理措施的差异造成的。从全区50年平均来看,春玉米潜在产量与实际产量间的产量差为64%,其中由于不可转化的技术因素、农学因素和经济社会因素限制的产量差分别为8%、40%和16%。从时间变化趋势来看,过去50年(1961—2010)研究区域春玉米各级产量差均呈现减小的趋势,其中总产量差和产量差3呈显著缩小趋势(P<0.01),每10年分别缩小1.55 t·hm^(-2)和1.40 t·hm^(-2),但产量差1和产量差2变化趋势并不显著。【结论】东北三省春玉米潜在产量与农户实际�[Objective] As the population increase, climate change and the environmental issues become increasingly prominent, food production and food security issues have attracted extensive attention. However, at present, the yields of crops are much lower than potential yields, therefore, how to produce enough food on limited land resources has become the major agricultural problem in China. Northeast China （NEC） is one of the most important maize production areas in China, where the maize output accounts for about 29% of the nation＇s production. Therefore, increasing maize yield has undoubtedly played a vital role in securing food production in China. [ Method] The yield gap between the potential yield and actual farmers＇ yields of maize in Northeast China was studied on the basis of meteorological data, ago-meteorological observations, and agricultural statistical data during the period from 1961 to 2010, and by using the Agricultural Production System Simulation Model （APSIM-maize） and statistical method, which will provide a scientific basis for the ascension of crop production in NEC. [Result] The yield gap between potential and actual farmers＇ yields （total yield gap） of spring maize decreased with increasing latitudes and longitudes （P〈0.01）. Among locations, this yield gap ranged from 4.8 t＇hm2 to 11.9 t.hm-2. The yield gaps between potential and attainable yields （yield gap 1）, attainable and potential farmers＇ yields （yield gap 2） showed a decreasing trend with increasing longitudes, showed a negative relationship with precipitation during the growing season. Among locations, mean yield gap 1 ranged from 0.06 t.hrn2 to 3.2 t.hm2. And mean yield gap 2 ranged from 1.7 t.hm2 to 8.0 t.hm2, mainly due to the effects of management practices. The mean weighted yield gap between potential and actual farmers＇ yields was 64% of the potential yield of spring maize. Moreover, 8%, 40%, and 16% reductions in potential yields were due to non-controllable factors, agronomic factors, and so

关 键 词：东北三省 玉米 产量差 时空特征 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学]