我国农村药品零售价格波动及其因素的研究  

Study on the fluctuation factors of drug retail price in rural areas of China

作　　者：贾建宇 

机构地区：[1]中国财政科学研究院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2017年第3期97-100,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：农村中西药品及医疗保健用品商品零售价格指数是反映我国农村居民医疗卫生卖方市场价格信号的重要指标,结合现实状况研究其波动特征具有重要的理论价值。本文利用ARCH族模型对该零售价格指数的波动特征进行实证分析。GARCH模型结果表明,该零售价格指数的波动记忆性较强,诸如医药政策改革、公共卫生危机一类的事件信息对于价格指数的冲击影响将是持久性的。EGARCH模型表明,整个样本期间,相较"利空消息"而言,"利多消息"对农村药品零售市场价格波动影响更大,为了稳定我国农村的药品零售市场,应预防突发性公共卫生事件对价格的冲击。The retail price index of middle and western medicines and health care products in rural area is an important indicator of the seller＇s market price signal of rural residents in China. Combined with the actual situation, it is of great theo- retical value to study the characteristics of retail price index fluctuation. In this paper, we use the ARCH model to empirically analyze the fluctuation characteristics of the retail price indexof medicines and health care products in rural areas of China The results of GARCH model show that the volatility memory of the retail price index is strong, and the impact of the event information on the price index, such as medical pol- icy reform, public health crisis, will be persistent. EGARCH model show that, compared to ＂bad news＇, ＂good news＂ has a greater impact on the retail market pricevolatility in ru- ral areas during the whole sample period. In order to stabilize the medicine retail market in rural areas, we should prevent the impact of public health emergencies on the price and augment the macro policies to stabilize the price mechanism.

关 键 词：农村药品零售市场 农村药品零售价格 ARCH模型 农村药品价格 

分 类 号：F426.72[经济管理—产业经济] F726