农业旱灾风险管理脆弱性评价及驱动因素分析  

Vulnerability Assessment and the Driving Force in the Management of Agricultural Drought Hazard

作　　者：谢家智[1] 车四方 林涌[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆市400715

出　　处：《西南大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第3期43-53,共11页Journal of Southwest University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：教育部规划项目"政府诱导型巨灾保险制度研究"(12YJA790149);项目负责人:谢家智;国家社会科学基金重点项目"巨灾风险管理机制设计及路径选择研究"(12AGL008);项目负责人:谢家智

摘　　要：本文基于对农业旱灾脆弱性理论分析,从自然、经济、社会、科技四个维度设计农业旱灾脆弱性的评价指标体系和分级标准,运用BP神经网络法对重庆市2001-2015年农业旱灾脆弱性进行综合评价分析,并考察农业旱灾脆弱性程度的动态特征和驱动因素。研究结论表明:重庆农业旱灾脆弱性程度总体上呈减弱趋势,但是面临极端气象条件时依然表现为重度脆弱。在旱灾脆弱性的驱动因素中,经济发展水平和科技发展能力是驱动旱灾脆弱性下降的主要因素;农业的自然脆弱性和社会脆弱性水平较高,严重影响了脆弱性总水平的下降。因此,农业旱灾风险脆弱性管理需要继续强化经济脆弱性和科技脆弱性管理的同时,重点是做好农业旱灾风险的社会脆弱性管理。The evaluation index system and classification standard of agricultural drought vulnerability were designed from four dimensions of nature,economy,society and science and technology based on the theoretical analysis of agricultural drought vulnerability.BP neural networks methods were used to evaluate the agricultural drought vulnerability in Chongqing from 2001to 2015,and to investigate the dynamic characteristics and driving forces of agricultural drought vulnerability.The results show that the degree of agricultural drought vulnerability in Chongqing is decreasing on the whole,but in the face of extreme weather conditions it is still severely vulnerable.Among the driving forces of the agricultural vulnerability to drought,the development of economy,science and technology are the key factors in reducing the vulnerability to drought disaster of Chongqing,but the natural and social vulnerability in agriculture remain relatively high,which impose negative impact on the reduction of vulnerability.Therefore,the key to the management of agricultural drought vulnerability is to improve the management of social vulnerability to agricultural drought disaster and to strengthen the management in areas of economic and scientific and technological vulnerability at the same time.

关 键 词：农业旱灾 脆弱性 BP神经网络 风险管理 灾害社会学 重庆市 

分 类 号：F224.9[经济管理—国民经济]