女性二胎生育意愿的影响因素研究——基于就业性质和养老观念的视角  

Study on the Influencing Factors on the Females' Fertility Intention for Two Children

作　　者：卢海阳[1] 邱航帆 郑逸芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学公共管理学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《南方人口》2017年第3期55-68,共14页South China Population

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"基于社会融入视角的农民工健康及其促进机制研究"(71603052);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目"农民工的社会融入及其健康效应研究"(16YJCZH065);福建省科技厅软科学项目"产业结构升级过程中福建省农民工的人力资本培育途径研究"(2017R0010)的阶段性成果;福建农林大学杰出青年科研人才计划资助项目(xjq201631)

摘　　要：在人口政策改革背景下,育龄女性的二胎生育意愿是决定政策目标能否有效执行的重要因素。本文基于新制度理论框架,从正式制度和非正式制度两个维度,实证检验就业性质和养老观念对育龄女性二胎生育意愿的影响。结果表明:就业性质对女性二胎生育意愿的影响存在显著的群体差异,对于较年轻的"无子女"女性或"90"后女性,体制内就业对二胎生育意愿的影响表现为抑制作用,而对于年龄相对较大的"有孩"女性或"80"后女性,体制内就业的影响显著为正,呈现出体制庇护作用;持有"子女养老"观念的女性二胎生育意愿显著高于持有其他养老观念的女性,但是养老观念的影响会随着代际交替而逐渐减弱。The fertility intentions of the childbearing age women for two children is a key indicator to evaluate the efficiency of new population policy. From the framework of new institutional theory, the paper empirically tests the effects of employment type and attitude towards elderly supports on the fertility intentions of childbearing age women in terms of formal and informal institutions. The types of employment have significant impacts on the fertility intentions of females, to be specific, the employment in the governmental organizations boast of somewhat restrictive effects on the fertility intentions for two children among the females younger and without childbirth or those of 1990s generation while a positive effect among the older women with child or those of 1980s generation. Women holding the idea that the elderly should be supported by their children have stronger intentions to have a second child than those holding social support of the elderly and the effects of elderly support attitude on the fertility intentions for two children increasingly weakened with the changes of generations.

关 键 词：生育意愿 就业性质 传统文化 内生性 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]