基于Bayes统计理论的射表编拟方法  

Compilation of Firing Tables Methods Based on Statistical Theory of Bayes

作　　者：闫雪梅[1] 文艳[1] 何斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国华阴兵器试验中心,陕西华阴714200

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2017年第5期121-125,共5页Fire Control & Command Control

摘　　要：全面系统阐述了Bayes统计理论下的射表编拟方法,具体研究了验前信息的处理、符合计算、编拟计算及试验用弹量的确定等几个关键难点问题,同时导出了确定先验分布中未知参数的计算公式、射表基本诸元的后验估计公式、射表试验用弹量的计算公式。通过两个实例对其具体使用方法给予了详细说明并对其结果进行了分析,指出应用该方法可以在相同精度要求下节省用弹量或在相同用弹量下提高射表精度,具有很好的经济适用价值。The compilation of firing tables methods based on statistical theory of Bayes is elaborated comprehensively and systematically. Several key challenges are studied detailedly, including dealing with prior information, fitting computation, compilation computation and determining the projectile consuming number, and the formulae are deduced to solve the unknown parameters of the prior distribution estimations, the posterior estimation of the firing table basic parameters, the projectile consuming in the firing table test. The specific usages arc demonstrated in detail by two examples, its results are analyzed. Results show that test ammunitions can be reduced under the same accuracy or the compilation of firing tables accuracy can be improved under the same test ammunitions by the method created in this paper, with strong economy serviceability.

关 键 词：先验分布 后验分布 射表编拟 样本量 BAYES 

分 类 号：TJ012.3[兵器科学与技术—兵器发射理论与技术]