经济发展水平、人口老龄化程度和医疗费用上涨对我国医保基金支出的影响分析  

Analysis on the Effects of Economic Development Level,Ageing Population Degree and Rising Medical Costs on Medical Insurance Fund Expenditure in China

作　　者：李俊[1] 方鹏骞[1] 陈王涛 陶思羽[1] 乐虹[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学同济医学院医药卫生管理学院,武汉430030

出　　处：《中国卫生经济》2017年第1期27-29,共3页Chinese Health Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(713300065);国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDC037)

摘　　要：目的:用定量方法研究我国人口老龄化、医疗费用上涨和经济发展对我国基本医疗保险基金支出的影响程度,并分析原因,据此提出预防医疗保险基金"穿底"的对策和建议。方法:基于2005—2014年全国31个省市65岁以上老年人口抚养比、人均医疗费用、人均GDP、城镇化率和人口增长率等指标,运用多重线性回归定量分析我国医疗保险基金支出与上述指标之间的数量关系。结果:统计分析结果显示只有人口老龄化、医疗费用上涨和经济发展这3个变量对应的P值小于0.05,这表明上述的因素对我国医疗保险基金的支出都有显著的影响,其中医疗费用的影响最大,人口老龄化次之,经济发展水平最小。结论:随着人口老龄化程度加剧以及医疗费用快速上涨是导致我国医疗保险基金支出增加的主要原因,这也直接导致了我国医疗保险基金的收入增幅小于支出增幅,使医疗保险基金面临"穿底"的风险,对此,政府作为主导,应该通过对医疗保险制度的改革和医疗保障水平的设定,强化医疗保险机构和医疗机构控制医疗费用过快增长的责任。Objective： To investigate the aging of Chinese population, the rising cost of health care and the economic developmeut impact on the expenditure of basic medical insurance fund, and put forward the suggestions and countermeasures for preventing the insurance fund from ＂wearing the bottom＂. Methods： Using multiple linear regression to analyze the relationship between the expenditure of basic medical insurance fund and the index, such as old-age dependency rate, the per capita medical expenses, the per eapita GDP, the urbanization rate and the population growth rate index, which came from the data of 31 provinces from 2005 to 2014. Re- suits： The statistical analysis results showed that the eorresponding P values of aging population, the rising medical costs and the eco- nomic development were less than 0.05, which indicated the aging population. The rising cost of health care and economic develop- ment had significantly influence on basic medical insurance fund expenditure. The rising medical eosts had most impact on the expen- diture of basic medical insurance fired, the aging of the population less, and the economic development dose the lease. Conclusion： With the escalating health care expenditures and raising the level of increasing aging population, the health insurance fund expendi- tures would be paid more than it took, which resulting in the risk of the health insurance fund risk wearing the bottom. In this regard, the government as the leading should take strategic moves to reform the medical insurance system and set the level of medical securi- ty to inerease health care institutions and medical institutions＇ rapid to control the over increasing growth of medical expenditure.

关 键 词：老龄化 医疗费用 经济发展 医疗保险基金 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理] F842.684[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]