考虑风电出力及负荷预测误差的安全经济运行模型  

Secure and Economic Operating Model for Power System Considering Wind Power and Load Forecasting Errors

作　　者：薛松[1] 欧阳邵杰 曾博 陈天穹 

机构地区：[1]国网能源研究院,北京昌平区102209 [2]新能源电力系统国家重点实验室华北电力大学,北京昌平区102206 [3]国网北京经济技术研究院,北京昌平区102209

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2017年第5期170-175,共6页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71271082);国家电网公司科技项目(SGERI06KJ[2015]63)

摘　　要：充分考虑了风电并网和负荷预测不确定性,引入净负荷的概念,实现对风电和负荷预测误差发生概率的综合考虑。通过场景概率的研究,以包括确定性成本和随机性成本在内的综合调度成本最小化为目标函数,构建安全经济运行模型。算例分析表明,本文构建的随机安全运行计划模型相比于传统的确定性模型能够更有效地降低系统运行成本,结果同时显示,根据系统容量和负荷需求合理配置风电装机容量,是减少弃风量、提高供电可靠性的重要手段。Considering wind power and load forecast uncertainties, the concept of net load has been brought torward, which takes error probability distributions of wind power forecast and load forecast in consideration compre- hensively. Through scene probability research, secure and economic operating model is built, minimizing total operation cost which consists of deterministic cost and stochastic cost. The example has verified that the stochastic model is much more effective in reducing operation cost than the traditional deterministic operation planning model. It is also confirmed that installing wind power capacity, according to power system capacity and load demand responsiveness, is of great importance in reducing wind energy spillage and improving power supply reliability.

关 键 词：风电出力预测 负荷预测 净负荷 安全经济运行 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] C931.1[经济管理—管理学]