基于WebGIS的祁县地质灾害预报预警系统研究  

Research of Qixian Geologic Hazard Forecast and Early Warning System Based on WebGIS

作　　者：王涛 李强 成晓琴 

机构地区：[1]山西省预警信息发布中心,太原030002 [2]祁县气象局,山西祁县030900 [3]山西省气象服务中心,太原030002

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2017年第1期138-143,共6页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：山西省科学技术厅林业气象条件监测预警项目(20110311040-1);山西省气象局面上科技项目(SXKYBTC201510030)资助

摘　　要：给出了山西省祁县地质灾害预报预警信息系统的实现方法。根据祁县国土局每年对本区域内各地质灾害发生点地质灾害要素的统计,以祁县县城及周边区域为研究对象,判定本区域内不同地段滑坡地质灾害发生的可能性,并分析地质灾害与对应的气象观测要素数据关系,根据当日强降水型和连续降水型方面的研究结果,将导致地质灾害发生概率的因素做分级量化处理,建立适合祁县本地区特点的地质灾害预报预警评估算法模型。在此研究基础上,构建地质灾害统计要素——气象观测要素数据库,设计并实现基于C/S与B/S相结合的Web GIS地理信息系统对地质灾害区域的实时监控,系统可对地质灾害的发生做出及时、准确的预警。通过调整完善气象观测要素影响值,修正预警区域和灾害等级计算方法,地质灾害点落入预报区比例从49%增加到69%,2011—2015年,系统对地质灾害的预报预警成功率达到了83%以上,满足了业务应用的需求。The realization method of the information system of the geologic hazard forecast and early warning in Qixian of Shanxi province was presented. The research object was Qixian county and its surrounding area. According to the yearly statistical results about geologic hazard elements from Bureau of Land and Resources of Qixian, the possibility of landslide geologic hazard in different zones of research area was determined, and the relationship between the geologic hazards and observed meteorological elements was analyzed. Based on the research results of day heavy rainfall type and continuous precipitation type, the index of geologic hazards probability was classified, and the forecast and early warning model of geologic hazards which was appropriate to Qixian local was established. On this basis, the database of statistical elements of geologic hazard-meteorological elements was built. The WebGIS geographic information system of geologic hazards in the region was designed based on the combination of C/S and B/S, and realizing the real-time monitoring and timely, accurate forecasting and early warning of the occurrence of geologic hazards of Qixian. Through the adjustment and improvement of meteorological factors influence value, early warning region and disaster grade calculation method, the percent of the geologic hazards point falling into the forecast area increased from 49% to 69%. During 2011 and 2015, the successful percent of this system for forecasting and warning on geological hazards reached more than 83% , and could meet the needs of operational applications.

关 键 词：地质灾害 算法模型 预报预警 WEBGIS 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]