基于改进灰色关联度的电力负荷影响因素量化分析模型  

Quantitative Analysis Model of Power Load Influencing Factors Based on Improved Grey Relational Degree

作　　者：王雁凌[1] 吴梦凯 周子青 马洪宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市昌平区102206

出　　处：《电网技术》2017年第6期1772-1778,共7页Power System Technology

摘　　要：当前我国电力负荷发展面临经济新常态,产业结构调整、节能减排等政策深入推进新形势。在此背景下,提出一种基于改进灰色关联度的电力负荷影响因素量化分析模型。首先,构建了宏观与微观相结合、层次化的负荷影响因素指标体系,系统地反映新形势下经济、政策等对负荷的影响;再次,针对传统灰色关联分析模型对历史数据的差异性和未来的电力发展形势考虑不足问题,通过对历史时期和因素指标分别加权,提出一种改进的灰色关联分析模型;最后,应用所提出的模型,对影响电力负荷的因素进行量化分析,所得结果相比于传统模型更加符合实际,同时依据所得结果对负荷预测等工作提出了建议。At present, development of electrical load in China faces a new situation, including new normality of economic growth, deep industrial structure adjustment, energy saving and emission reduction and so on. In this paper, a quantitative analysis model of power load influencing factors based on improved grey relational degree is proposed. Firstly, a hierarchical index system of power load influencing factors Combining macroscopic view with microscopic view is established to reflect systematically effects of economy and policy on power load in the new situation. As traditional grey correlation analysis model cannot well consider historical data differences and future electricity development, an improved grey relational analysis model is proposed through weighting historical periods and factor indexes respectively. Finally, the proposed model is applied in quantitative analysis of power load influencing factors. In Comparison with traditional model, its results are more consistent with actual situations. Based on obtained results, suggestions for load forecasting and other work are put forward.

关 键 词：改进灰色关联度 双向加权 电力负荷特性 量化分析 负荷预测 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]