基于次序统计量理论的洪水频率分析方法研究  

Method for Flood Frequence Analysis Based on Order Statistics Theory

作　　者：康有[1] 马顺刚[1] 樊明兰[1] 刘勇[2] 张波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司,四川成都610072 [2]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水文》2017年第3期1-6,21,共7页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：中国电力建设股份有限公司重大科技专项(DJ-ZDZX-2016-02-02);中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(2015-ZD-07);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201501014)

摘　　要：针对目前参数估计方法存在稀遇洪水频率设计值偏大的问题,提出采用基于数值次序统计量期望值的适线法计算洪水频率设计初始值;针对目前参数估计方法存在常遇洪水频率设计值偏小的问题,提出采用周文德公式修正目前频率设计偏小的情形,计算洪水频率设计修正值;针对目前传统方法计算洪水频率设计值抽样误差大的问题,提出采用基于数值次序统计量标准差的方法计算洪水频率设计保证值。定量分析表明,提出的基于数值次序统计量期望值的优化适线法具有良好的无偏性和有效性;寸滩站洪水频率设计修正值大于频率设计初始值,且两者偏差随着频率减小而减小;寸滩站洪水频率设计保证值明显大于修正值。As for the problem that the rare flood frequency design value is too large with parameter estimation methods, this paper used the FIT method of order statistic expectation value to calculate the initial value of design flood. For the problem that the common flood frequency design value is too small with parameter estimation methods, this paper used the ZhouWende formula to calculate the correction value of design flood. As for the problem that the error of design flood is too large, this paper used the standard deviation of generalized order statistics method to calculate the safety value of design flood.The results show that the FIT method of order statistic expectation has a good unbiased and effectiveness properties. The correction value of design flood of the Cuntan station design flood is greater than the initial value of design flood, and both bias decreases as the frequency decreases. Obviously, the safety value of design flood of Cuntan Station design flood is greater than the correction value of design flood.

关 键 词：洪水频率分析 次序统计量 绘点位置 SCE-UA AES 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]