基于灰关联TOPSIS法的交通方式选择模型  

Traffic mode choice model based on grey correlation TOPSIS method

作　　者：赵丽娜[1] 王立晓[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学建筑工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830047

出　　处：《交通科技与经济》2017年第3期10-13,67,共5页Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51108398)

摘　　要：首次提出灰关联TOPSIS法的交通方式选择模型,克服TOPSIS方法不能较好地解释现实决策的缺点;引入灰色关联分析,用灰色关联系数代替TOPSIS方法中的欧式距离,反映在特定属性上接近理想方案的程度;利用相对贴近度对方案进行排序,最后用各交通方式的相对贴近度代替Logit模型效用函数中的可观测项,计算各交通方式选择概率,并应用于乌鲁木齐市居民交通方式选择的实例中,结果表明,交通方式分担比例预测结果与出行者实际的交通方式选择结果相一致,验证了灰关联TOPSIS方法在交通方式选择中的适应性和有效性。A travel mode choice model based on grey correlation TOPSIS method is proposed firstly in this study. The model overcomes the shortcomings of TOPSIS method which can not explain the real decision situation well, and introduces grey correlation analysis. The grey correlation coefficient is used to replace the European distance in the TOPSIS method, which reflects the degree of the scheme close to the ideal scheme in the specific attribute. The relative closeness degree is used to rank the scheme, and finally the relative closeness degree of each traffic mode is used instead of the observable items in the Logit model utility function to calculate the probability of travel mode choice. This method is applied to the empirical study of the residents＇s travel mode choice in Urumqi. The result shows that the forecast result of travel mode choice probability is consistent with the actual result of traffic mode choice, which indicates the applicability and validity of the grey correlation TOPSIS method in the study of travel mode choice.

关 键 词：交通方式 灰关联分析 TOPSIS法 LOGIT模型 SP调查 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]