基于可能度的风险评价方法研究  

Research on Risk Evaluation Method Based on Possibility

作　　者：谢涛[1] 范英[1] 胡琴[1] 乔建璐 荆华[1] 甄珍[1] 

机构地区：[1]太原科技大学交通与物流学院,太原030024

出　　处：《太原科技大学学报》2016年第4期286-290,共5页Journal of Taiyuan University of Science and Technology

基　　金：2014山西省研究生教育改革研究课题(20142061);校研究生科技创新(20145014);山西省高等学校大学生创新创业训练项目(2074289)

摘　　要：为解决现有单值评价导致结果偏差较大的问题,同时也为解决评价过程中各专家权重的问题提出一种新的基于可能度的评价方法。首先建立风险评价模型,对评价因素集及评语集进行构建;接着邀请专家应用区间数法对各属性指标进行打分,对同一指标下的任意两个区间数,运用区间数比较的可能度公式,求出一个区间数大于另一个区间数的概率;然后基于可能度的区间数指标差异性确定各位专家的权重,进而对初始评价矩阵进行修正,最后利用一种模糊加权算子进行集成得到最终的评价值。通过应用案例与传统评价方法结果对比,本方法获得的评价结果更加客观可信。A new risk assessment method based on possibility was pointed out, aiming at overcoming the shortcom- ings of single numerical value evaluation, improving the accuracy of decision risk factors and confirming expert weight during the risk evaluation. Firstly, risk assessment model was established, evaluation factors set and estima- tion scale set were built. Afterwards, some experts were invited to score all of the attributes by using interval num- ber. Possibility formula was used to compare two interval numbers about the arbitrary two interval numbers attached to the same indicator. The probability of one interval number bigger than another could be obtained. Then, expert weight was determined based on possibility which was related to interval number index difference. So, the initial e- valuation matrix could be revised. Finally, the final evaluation value could be acquired by using a sort of fuzzy weighted operators. The comparison between the application case and the traditional evaluation outcome verified the conclusion that the evaluation result obtained by this method was more objective and reliable.

关 键 词：风险评价 区间数 可能度 专家权重 

分 类 号：TH242[机械工程—机械制造及自动化]