城市气候承载力定量化评价方法初探  

Preliminary Quantitative Assessment Study on Climate Carrying Capacity of Cities

作　　者：闫胜军[1,2] 何霄嘉[3] 王烜[1,2] 曾维华[1] 李春晖[2] 蔡宴朋[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院水环境模拟国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学环境学院水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [3]中国21世纪议程管理中心,北京100038

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2016年第6期476-483,共8页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金(51421065)

摘　　要：本文从气候天然容量、城市气候压力和城市协调发展能力3个方面选取24个指标构建较完整的城市气候承载力评价指标体系。气候天然容量指数采用内梅罗指数法计算,城市气候压力指数和城市协调发展能力指数采用基于熵权的综合评价方法计算,进而构建城市气候承载力综合评价函数以量化评价结果。以上海市为例,对其气候承载力进行定量化评价。研究表明,本文建立的气候承载力评价指标体系是可行的,它可以描述某一城市时域上的变化,也可以对区域气候承载力开发利用过程中存在的问题进行甄别,并可作为气候预警响应的依据,为我国建立区域气候安全管理机制提供技术参考。分析上海市2004—2013年这10年间气候承载力的变化趋势,结果表明研究期内上海市气候承载力整体劣于基准年值,且因深受气候天然容量的影响而处于较大波动状态。In this paper, a comprehensive evaluation index system of climate carrying capacity for cities was established from the aspects of the climate natural capacity, city climate stress, and urban coordinated development ability. The climate natural capacity index was calculated using the method of Nemerow index. City climate stress and urban coordinated development ability indexes were calculated using comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy weight. Then the urban climate capacity comprehensive evaluation model was established to quantify the evaluation results. Taking Shanghai city as an example, the climate carrying capacity was analyzed and discussed using the proposed model during the period 2004-2013. The results showed that the assessment system of city carrying capacity is feasible. It could describe spatio-temporal changes of cities, and identify the problems of regional climate carrying capacity in the development and utilization. This assessment system can also provide a reference for the building of an early warning system of climate carrying capacity. The climate carrying capacity of Shanghai city in the studied period was inferior compared with that in the standard year, and was in a state of large fluctuations due to the influence of climate natural capacity.

关 键 词：气候承载力 定量评价 上海市 城市气候 

分 类 号：P463.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]