北京市交通环境承载力动态评价及障碍因子诊断  

Dynamic Evaluation of Traffic Environment Bearing Capacity of Beijing and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factor

作　　者：徐艳艳[1] 李国柱[1] 徐喆[1] 刘春艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,吉林四平136000

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2017年第6期122-128,共7页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(13CSH068);四平市社会科学基金项目(201405)

摘　　要：交通环境承载力是衡量城市交通可持续发展的一个关键指标,是制定城市交通规划和交通政策的依据和基础。基于模糊物元理论和熵权法构建交通环境承载力预警模型,对2007—2014年北京市交通环境承载力水平进行评价,并通过障碍因素诊断模型对北京市交通环境承载力的主要障碍因素进行识别。结果表明:2007—2014年北京市交通环境综合承载力水平有所提升,但提升幅度不大;交通环境资源承载力和交通环境污染承载力是限制北京市交通可持续发展的主要限制因素,且交通环境资源承载力障碍度有逐年攀升的趋势;北京市交通环境综合承载力的主要障碍因子包括可吸入颗粒物年日均值、二氧化氮年日均值、机动车保有量密度、建成区路网密度、公共交通线路密度,特别值得关注的是,近年来机动车保有量密度的障碍度逐年攀升,已超过交通环境污染因子成为制约北京市交通环境可持续发展最大的障碍因子。Traffic environmental bearing capacity is a key index for measuring the sustainable development of urban traffic, it is the basis and foundation for working out urban traffic planning and traffic policy. An early- warning model of traffic environmental bearing capacity is constructed based on fuzzy matter element theory and entropy weight method, and the traffic environmental bearing capacity of Beijing from 2007 to 2014 is evaluated. Then, the main obstacle factors of the traffic environmental bearing capacity of Beijing are identified by the barrier factor diagnosis mode. The result demonstrates that （1） the level of traffic environment comprehensive bearing capacity of Beijing City has been improved from 2007 to 2014, but the increase is not significant; （2） the traffic environmental resources bearing capacity and the traffic environmental pollution bearing capacity are the main limiting factors of the sustainable development of traffic in Beijing, and the obstacle degree of traffic resources bearing capacity is rising year by year; （3） the main obstacle factors of the traffic environmental bearing capacity of Beijing include the average annual daily value of respirable particulate matter, the average annual daily value of nitrogen dioxide, the density of motor vehicle population, the density of road network in built-up area, and the public transport line density, particularly noteworthy is that the obstacle degree of motor vehicle population density has been increasing year by year, and it has surpassed the traffic environmental pollution factors to become the largest obstacle factor of restricting the sustainable development of traffic environment in Beijing.

关 键 词：交通工程 交通环境承载力 模糊物元 熵权 障碍度 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] U121[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]