综合运输体系结构演变特征及趋势分析  

Analysis on Evolution Characteristics and Tendency of Integrated Transport System Structure

作　　者：董彬[1] 吴群琪[1] 彭志敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2017年第6期151-158,共8页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金项目(11YJA630155);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20130205110001);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2014G6231001)

摘　　要：为了实现有限运输资源的合理配置和高效利用,基于信息熵理论和主导产业扩散效应理论,通过定义综合运输体系结构信息熵、均衡度、优势度、转换速度系数和转换方向系数,分析了1949—2014年间我国综合运输体系结构的演变特征及趋势。研究结果表明:我国综合运输体系结构信息熵不断增加并逐步趋于平稳,呈现出"阶梯型"变化趋势;均衡度、优势度呈现出"∞"型变化趋势,表现出两阶段的发展特征;我国综合运输体系结构转换速度系数和转换方向系数前期偏低且差异较小,后期达到较高水平且差异明显。综合运输理念和实践不断发展,各种运输方式通过其技术经济特征确立了交通运输新格局,交通运输发展应按照运输方式各尽其能进行资源优化配置,形成合理、均衡、高效的综合运输体系结构。In order to achieve the rational allocation and effective use of limited transport resources, the evolution characteristics and trends of China＇s integrated transport system during 1949--2014 is analyzed, by defining information entropy, equilibrium degree, dominance, conversion speed coefficient and conversion direction coefficient based on the theories of information entropy and leading industry, diffusion effect. The result shows that （ 1 ） the information entropy of China＇s integrated transport system structure is increasing and gradually stabilized, and showing a ＂ladder-type＂ trend; （2） the equilibrium degree and the dominance show ＂~ ＂ trends, which can be divided into 2 stages ; （3） the conversion speed coefficient and the direction coefficient of China＇s integrated transport system structure are relatively small early, but reached a high level and having a significant difference later. With the continuous development of integrated transport concepts and practices, a new pattern of transport has been established by its technical and economic characteristics of different transport modes. To achieve a reasonable, balanced and effective integrated transport system structure, it should optimize the allocation of resources according to the transport modes and do their best for transport development.

关 键 词：运输经济 综合运输体系结构 信息熵 演变特征 主导产业扩散效应 发展趋势 

分 类 号：U116.1[交通运输工程]