基于统计的我国短时交通流预测模型分析  

Analysis of Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Model Based on Statistics in China

作　　者：王晓丹[1] 白云[1,2] 李川[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学电子商务及供应链系统重庆市重点实验室,重庆400067 [2]重庆工商大学国家智能制造服务国际科技合作基地,重庆400067

出　　处：《现代计算机（中旬刊）》2017年第6期31-34,共4页Modern Computer

基　　金：重庆市科委基础与前沿研究项目(No.cstc2015jcyj A70007);重庆市研究生教改项目(No.YJG43015);国家智能制造服务国际科技合作基地开放基金(No.ghjd201603)

摘　　要：短时交通流量预测作为交通控制管理、交通诱导提供技术支持之一,已经成为交通工程的研究热点。为了研究近年来预测模型的现状,在中国知网数据库高级检索功能中以"篇名:短时交通并含预测"和"发表时间:2000-2016"为条件进行检索,共检索到133篇核心期刊。通过对期刊的分类统计,就当前国内常用的预测模型的原理及作用作简单介绍,并根据现有各模型的优缺点和使用范围,对未来的发展趋势做初步探讨。Short-term traffic forecasting which is one of the key technologies of intelligent traffic control management and traffic guidance, has become a hot topic in the field of traffic engineering. In order to study the status quo of the forecasting model in recent years, a total of 133 code journals were retrieved in the advanced search function of the China Knowledge Infrastructure database, which was searched by ＂title： Short-term traffic and forecast＂ and ＂published time： 2000-2016＂. Based on the classification statistics of journals, this article made a briefly introduction on the principle and function of the current forecasting domestic forecasting models. Future, the future development trend also been preliminary discussed based on current advantages, disadvantages and application range of each model.

关 键 词：智能交通系统 短时交通流 预测模型 

分 类 号：U491.112[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]