供给侧结构性改革下系统性金融风险:生成逻辑、风险测度与防控对策  

Systematic Financial Risks under Supply Side Structural Reform:Generation logic,Risk Measurement and Prevention Countermeasures

作　　者：韩心灵[1,2] 韩保江[3] Han Xinling1 Han Baojiang2

机构地区：[1]安徽省委党校经济学教研部 [2]中共中央党校研究生院 [3]中共中央党校经济学教研部

出　　处：《财经科学》2017年第6期1-13,共13页Finance & Economics

摘　　要：供给侧结构性改革下存在五大金融风险点,分别为实体经济风险、银行部门风险、政府债务风险、虚拟经济风险和货币风险,这五大风险点共振与联动可能生成系统性金融风险。通过构建中国系统性金融风险压力指数与金融压力时期识别模型,实证分析表明实体经济风险、政府债务风险、虚拟经济风险对系统性风险影响较大;我国系统性金融风险正处在金融压力时期。防控系统性风险应该密切监测、准确预判、把握节奏、综合施策、标本兼治。There are five financial risk points in the supply side structural reform： real economy risk, bank sector risk, government debt risk, fictitious economic risk and currency risk. It is possible to generate systemic financial risk un- der the joint action of these five risks. Through the establishment of China＇s systemic financial risk pressure index and financial pressure period identification model, the empirical analysis shows that the greatest impacts on systemic risk are the risk of the real economy, the government debt risk and the virtual economic risk. At present, China＇s systemic financial risk is higher than any previous period. To prevent systemic financial risk, It should be monitored closely, predicted accurately, treated both principally and secondarily.

关 键 词：供给侧结构性改革 系统性金融风险 生成逻辑 金融风险压力指数 

分 类 号：F832.1[经济管理—金融学]