大规模分布式光伏短期集群功率预测综述  

Overview for Large-scale Distributed Photovoltaic Power Prediction with Clustered Method

作　　者：张小萌[1] 白恺[2] 柳玉[2] 李智[2] 卢玺宁 周少祥[1] Zhang Xiaomeng Bai Kai Liu Yu Li Zhi Lu Xining Zhou Shaoxiang(School of Energy, Power and Mechanical Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China State Grid Jibei Electric Power Co. Ltd. Research Institute, North China Electric Power Research Institute Co. Ltd., Beijing 100045,China Hebei Langfang Electric Power Corporation ,Langfang 065000, China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学能源动力与机械工程学院,北京102206 [2]国网冀北电力有限公司电力科学研究院(华北电力科学研究院有限责任公司),北京100045 [3]河北省廊坊市电力公司,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《华北电力技术》2017年第6期1-7,共7页North China Electric Power

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目(05E000M16002);国家科技支撑计划(2015BAA06B00)

摘　　要：中国目前的光伏发电系统尚以集中式光伏为主,但是很多太阳能资源丰富地区对电力的消纳能力较差,因此分布式光伏日益受到重视。分布式光伏的波动性和随机性导致对其进行功率预测变得十分必要,然而,分布式光伏发电存在的历史数据收集困难、实时监测数据缺乏等问题对功率预测造成了极大的困难。近年来出现了一些将集群功率预测方法应用于风电场群功率预测的研究。因为集群功率预测方法更加关注集群内各区域的功率预测而不是单个电场或电站的功率预测,所以这种方法能够在很大程度上解决分布式光伏发电功率预测的难题。文章概述了目前已有的分布式功率预测方法和集群功率预测方法,分析了这两个方面已有的研究,并指出集群功率预测方法在分布式光伏发电功率预测上的应用前景。The main photovoltaic power generation system in China is the centralized ones. Yet numerous areas in which solar energy resource is rich is poor in power consumption, the distributed PV power generation has drawn more attention. It is necessary to predict the power of distributed PV power due to its fluctuation and randomness. Howev- er, there are some troubles such as the difficulty of historical data collection and the lack of real-time monitoring da- ta. Using the clustered prediction methods, some researchers have predicted the power of wind farms in recent years. It is probable that the regional prediction method is used for the prediction of distributed PV power because it con- centrates on the regional power rather than the single one. This paper summarizes the methods of distributed PV pow- er prediction and clustered prediction, analyzes the relevant researches and illuminates the application prospect in clustered prediction on distributed photovoltaic power generation.

关 键 词：分布式光伏 集群 功率预测 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]