海南省交通运输业能源需求与碳排放预测分析  

Forecasting of Energy Demands and Carbon Emission of Transportation in Hainan Province

作　　者：张建珍[1] 王小琛 台啟龙 谢荣富[1] 陈振斌[1] Zhang Jianzhen Wang Xiaochen Tai Qilong Xie Rongfu Chen Zhenbin(School of Mechanical Electrical Engineering, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China Quzhou College of Technology, Quzhou 324000, China School of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China)

机构地区：[1]海南大学机电工程学院,海南海口570228 [2]衢州职业技术学院机电工程学院,浙江衢州324000 [3]华南理工大学机械与汽车工程学院,广东广州510640

出　　处：《海南大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第2期164-170,共7页Natural Science Journal of Hainan University

基　　金：中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(CDM2013008)

摘　　要：为预测海南省交通运输业的能源需求与碳排放情况,以美国和瑞典共同开发的模型—"长期能源替代规划系统(LEAP)"和MATLAB为工具,在分析2005—2014年间海南省交通运输业能源消耗及碳排放现状的基础上,建立了海南省交通运输的能源与环境LAEP模型,同时,采用回归分析法,对海南省交通运输业的能源需求和二氧化碳排放量进行了预测,并设置了基准、结构和政策3种情境,以2010年为基准期,估测了2015—2035年交通运输的能源需求量和二氧化碳排放量.分析结果表明,在节能低碳情景下,2035年海南省的能源需求和CO_2排放量显著减缓,其中能源需求的结构情境相比基准情境将降低11.45%,单位产值的CO_2排放则减少15.01%.政策情境相比基准情境将降低11.08%,单位产值的CO_2排放则减少12.24%.因此,调整交通运输的结构比例和从政策角度降低各终端的能源强度,有利于节能减排的实现.To forecast the energy demands and carbon emission of transportation in Hainan Province, LEAP model （Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System）, which were developed by U. S. A and Sweden, and MATLAB, were used as the tools to analyze the situation of energy demands and carbon emission of transportation industry in Hainan Province from 2005 to 2014, and the LEAP model of Hainan Province was constructed. Regression analysis was performed to forecast the energy demands and carbon emission of transportation in Hainan Province. Three scenario, baseline, structure, and policy, were set, the energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions from 2015--2035 were estimated. The results showed that the energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions in 2035 would be declined under the energy-saving and low-carbon scenario. Compared with baseline scenario, the energy demand in the structure scenario would be reduced by 11.45%, and the emissions of carbon dioxide reduced by 15.01%. Compared with baseline scenario, the energy demand under the policy scenario would be reduced by 11.08%, and the emissions of carbon dioxide reduced by 12.24%. Therefore, adjusting the proportion of transportation industries and decreasing the energy intensity from the perspective of policy analysis are helpful for the realization of energy-saving and emission-reduction.

关 键 词：交通运输业 低碳发展 LEAP模型 情境分析 节能策略 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]