基于小波分析的山东寒潮强弱变化特征研究  

Study on intensity change characteristics of cold wave in Shandong Province by wavelet analysis

作　　者：黄炜楠 李雪 董胜[1] HUANG Weinan LI Xue DONG Sheng(College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China School of Hydraulic Energy and Power Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225127, China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学工程学院,山东青岛266100 [2]扬州大学水利与能源动力工程学院,江苏扬州225127

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2017年第3期56-62,共7页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51279186);国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0802301;2016YFC0303401)~~

摘　　要：利用山东省1979-2013年的日最低气温数据,采用经验正交函数分解和Morlet小波分析方法,分析了山东省寒潮、强寒潮和特强寒潮的时空分布特征,对寒潮发展趋势进行了预测。结果表明:山东省寒潮频次分布主要表现为东西部地区的差异,存在4 a的变化周期;强寒潮主要表现为东西部地区间、中部地区与东西部地区间及南北部地区间的差异,分别存在12 a,8 a和14 a的变化周期;特强寒潮主要表现为东西部地区间、中部地区和东西部地区间及南北部地区间的差异,分别存在9 a、15 a和14 a的变化周期。Based on the daily minimum temperature data during 1979 -2013, the spatiotemporal distribution char- acteristics of cold wave, strong cold wave and ultra-strong cold wave in Shandong Province were analyzed with em- pirical orthogonal function （EOF） resolution and Morlet wavelet analysis method. The results show that, the cold wave frequency distribution in Shandong Province shows a difference between the east and the west, with a 4-year variation period; strong cold wave shows the difference of the east versus the west, the center versus the west and east, the south versus the north, with a variation period of 12 years ,8 years and 14 years respectively; ultra-strong cold wave shows the difference of the east versus the west, the center versus the west and east, the south versus the north, with a variation period of 9 years, 15 years and 14 years respectively.

关 键 词：寒潮 时空分布 发展趋势 经验正交函数 小波分析 

分 类 号：P425.54[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]