病证结合构建慢病风险预测模型的思路与方法  

Ideas and Methods of Chronic Disease Risk Prediction Model Construction by the Methods of Combining Disease With Syndrome

作　　者：魏戌[1] 谢雁鸣[2] 田峰[2] 申浩[2] 姜俊杰[2] 孙帅玲 章轶立[2] WEI Xu XIE Yan-ming TIAN Feng SHEN Hao JIANG Jun-jie SUN Shuai-ling ZHANG Yi-li(Wangjing Hospital, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100102, China Institute of Basic Research in Clinical Medicine, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100700, China)

机构地区：[1]中国中医科学院望京医院,北京100102 [2]中国中医科学院中医临床基础医学研究所,北京100700

出　　处：《中国中医基础医学杂志》2017年第6期798-801,共4页JOURNAL OF BASIC CHINESE MEDICINE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(30873339)-基于非齐性Markov model建立病症结合的绝经后骨质疏松证早期风险评估模型;国家自然科学基金资助项目(81173472)-基于GLSISSM模型的缺血性中风复发高危因素早期预警新方法研究;国家自然科学基金面上项目(81373885)-基于两种模型的绝经后骨质疏松性骨折早期预警方法机制研究;国家中医临床研究基地业务建设第二批科研专项(JDZX2015076)-中医综合干预方案预防原发性骨质疏松症骨折的前瞻性队列研究;北京市中医药科技发展资金项目(JJ 2015-57)-补骨生髓配方颗粒治疗原发性骨质疏松症的临床疗效机理研究

摘　　要：风险预测模型研究是慢性非传染性疾病(简称慢病)防治的重要手段,但目前的疾病风险预测模型中缺乏中医证候学和症状学等方面内容。病证结合构建慢病风险预测模型的研究思路,首先是以疾病发生或疾病终点指标作为目标结局变量,其次确定并采集与目标结局相关的关键信息,然后运用数理方法筛选中西医危险因素构建风险预测模型,最后评价风险预测模型的预测性能。常用的数学模型包括Logistic回归模型、Cox比例风险模型、人工神经网络、决策树模型、Markov模型、随机森林。此外在构建风险预测模型时,需注意各种模型的适用条件、结局变量特征、影响因素的数据特点。The research on risk prediction model is the important strategy for prevention and treatment of chronic non- infections diseases. However, there are lack of related contents about traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） syndrome and symptom in the prediction models. Firstly, the basis of building risk prediction model based on combination of disease and syndrome is to choose whether disease occur disease endpoint index as the target outcome. Secondly, the key influencing factors which are relative to the known outcome are identified and collected. Thirdly, mathematical methods are chosen to screen TCM and western medicine risk factors, eventually to construct risk model. Fourthly, the performance of risk prediction model is evaluated. The common mathematical model include logistic regression analysis, Cox proportional hazard model, artificial neural network, decision tree model, Markov model, and random forest. In addition, we should pay attention to the application conditions, characteristic of outcome and influencing factors in the construction of risk prediction model.

关 键 词：病证结合 风险预测模型 危险因素 中医证候 数学模型 

分 类 号：R222.19[医药卫生—中医基础理论]