基于GIS和Logistic回归模型的土地利用空间模拟与分析——以龙海市为例  

Spatial simulation and analysis of land use pattern based on GIS technology and Logistic regression model:a case study in Longhai City

作　　者：林晓丹[1] 范胜龙[1] 孙巧燕[1] 汤俊红 张转转[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学资源与环境学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《福建农林大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第4期468-473,共6页Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2015J01624)

摘　　要：基于2014年龙海市土地利用变更数据、DEM数据和社会经济数据,借助GIS空间分析技术,共设计7个模拟尺度,运用Logistic回归模型选取对试验区有重要贡献的10种驱动因子进行空间统计分析,并对龙海市土地利用空间格局进行模拟.试验结果表明,龙海市模型的最佳模拟尺度为125 m×125 m,在该尺度下耕地、园地、林地、建设用地的空间分布格局模拟精度分别为:82.73%、76.65%、69.52%、88.49%.龙海市土地利用类型与各驱动因子具有显著相关性,高程、人口、可达性因素是决定龙海市土地利用空间格局形成与演变的重要因素,可为研究龙海市未来土地利用动态模拟提供依据.To rationalize land use of Longhai City and provide information on city planning,data on land use changes,DEM data and social economic data of Longhai in 2014 were interpreted by GIS. Then 10 driving factors,selected by spatial statistical analy-sis, were interpreted by Logistic model under 7 simulation scales. At last,model with the optimum scale was used to predict spatial pattern of land use changes of Longhai. The results illustrated that the optimum simulation scale was 125 mx125 m. Under this scale,simulation accuracies of spatial distribution patterns of cultivated land, orchards,forest land, and construction land were 82.73%, 76.65%, 69.52% and 88.49% respectively. Land use of Longhai was highly correlated with driving factors,with elevation, population density,and accessibility being the most determinant factors for the formation and evolution of spatial pattern of land use in Longhai.

关 键 词：土地利用 二元Logistic回归模型 空间模拟 多尺度 龙海市 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]