移动通信创新技术研发项目的投资评价  

Investment Evaluation of Mobile Communication Innovative Technology R&D Project

作　　者：彭斌[1] 彭绯[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学经济与管理工程学院,北京100044 [2]中国中医科学院中医药信息研究所,北京100700

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2017年第13期125-129,共5页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目"组合奇异期权定价及在跨国理财中运用肌理研究"(71002098);国家自然科学基金资助项目"移动无线传感器网络目标跟踪关键问题研究"(61102009)

摘　　要：基于研发项目多阶段柔性投资特征分析,考虑项目生命周期内综合风险的波动率变化,构建适用于移动通信创新技术研发的不确定条件下不可逆投资评价的复合实物期权模型,并通过某大型移动电话运营商移动支付系统研发投资的案例研究验证了模型的有效实用性,项目经理经验推断和客观比较估计具体时段内波动率的可行性。R＆D investment is an important part of enhancing the international competitiveness of high-tech enterprises. It is of strategic and practical significance to scientifically and reasonably evaluate mobile communication technology R＆D investment. Based on the analysis of multi-phase flexibility in R＆D investment, and considering the change of volatility in comprehensive risk of the project life cycle, this paper establishes a compound real option model to evaluate the mobile communication technology R＆D investment. Moreover, case study on large mobile phone operators who research and develop mobile payment system is provided to verify the validity and practice of evaluation model, as well as the feasibility of the project manager＇s empirical inference and objective comparison to estimate the volatility of the specific period of time.

关 键 词：移动通信创新技术 研发项目 复合实物期权 投资评价 

分 类 号：F273.1[经济管理—企业管理] F626[经济管理—国民经济]