城市公交车辆有限状态的到站时间预测  

City Bus Arrival Time Prediction of Finite State

作　　者：王茁[1] 程绍武[2] 

机构地区：[1]大连科技学院交通运输学院,辽宁大连116052 [2]哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨154100

出　　处：《大连交通大学学报》2017年第4期1-6,共6页Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University

摘　　要：在分析影响公交车辆到站时间影响因素的基础上,选取模型的输入变量和输出变量,设计基于城市公交车有限运行状态的自动机模型,通过对不同时段的到站时间预测模型分析,提出了一种复合的公交车辆到站时间预测模型,并通过实例分析证明有限状态自动机预测模型较单一预测模型预测结果更为精准,对于城市公交车辆到站时间预测工作具有一定的现实意义.On the basis of analyzing the factors influencing the bus arrival time,input variables and output variables of the model are selected, and the model of automaton is designed based on bus limited running status. By analyzing the arrival time at different times of the prediction model, a composite of bus arrival time prediction model is proposed. Through the instance analysis, the predicted results show that the finite state automata model is more accurate than a single forecasting model, which indicates the model for city bus arrival time prediction work has a certain practical significance.

关 键 词：城市公交 公交车辆 有限状态 自动机 到站时间 

分 类 号：U491.17[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]