基于合并报表与母公司报表的财务危机预警效果比较研究  

Comparative Study of the Effect of Financial Distress Pre-warning Model between the Consolidated and Parent Financial Statement

作　　者：王秀丽[1] 张龙天[1] 贺晓霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际商学院,100029

出　　处：《会计研究》2017年第6期38-44,共7页Accounting Research

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金研究基地项目(14JDJGB022)的资助

摘　　要：本文选择了2009年至2014年的ST企业,及因欠款未还被提起诉讼、因债务重组低价出售资产、资不抵债和因虚构利润被违规处理的企业作为财务危机样本,运用Logistic回归建立财务危机预警模型,实证对比了合并报表与母公司报表的财务危机预警效果差异。研究结论显示,合并报表的总体预警效果略优于母公司报表;但当母公司采用经营主导型战略时,母公司报表数据的财务预警效果优于合并报表;当母公司采用投资主导型战略时,随着合并报表包含的增量信息增多,其财务危机预警效果较明显的优于母公司报表。论文进一步拓展了合并报表与母公司报表信息有用性的比较研究,丰富了债权人视角下财务危机预警有效性的研究。Using the data of A-share listed companies’consolidated and parent financial statements,this paper comparatively examines the effect of financial distress pre-warning between the consolidated and parent financial statement,.The paper finds that,the effect of financial distress pre-warning model using consolidated statement is better than the model using parent financial statement,considering the full sample.However,the model has a higher forecast accuracy using parent financial statements under the operation-oriented strategy.With the increasing of long-term equity investment which is actually controlled by the parent companies,the incremental information of companies'consolidated financial statements increase too.Then the financial distress pre-warning model has a higher forecast accuracy using consolidated financial statements under the investment-oriented strategy.

关 键 词：经营主导型 投资主导型 合并报表 财务危机预警 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]