互通式立交车辆分流选择行为概率模型  

A Probability Model of Interchange Vehicle Diverging Choice Behaviors

作　　者：潘兵宏[1,2] 高健强[1] 霍永富 

机构地区：[1]长安大学公路学院,陕西西安710064 [2]长安大学特殊地区公路工程教育部重点试验室,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2017年第7期115-120,共6页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：广东省交通运输厅科技项目(科技-2013-02-059)

摘　　要：为系统分析互通式立交分流区驾驶人的分流选择行为特征,讨论驾驶人多项分流选择行为的随机复杂性,根据车辆换道方式及位置对驾驶人分流换道行为进行了定量描述,确定了模型选择树及线性效用函数。选取分流区车辆行驶速度、加速度、车型、匝道小时交通量、减速车道车头时距等特征变量,建立了驾驶人匝道分流与分流方式选择的两层Nested Logit概率模型。基于广河高速公路部分互通式立交分流区的雷达跟踪数据,采用分阶段估计法进行模型参数估计。根据t检验判断了特征变量的影响程度,对模型进行了优化。结果表明:互通式立交区分流选择行为受多种因素综合作用的影响;两层NL概率模型具有较高的预测精度。In order to systematically analyse the characteristics of drivers＇ diverging choice behaviors at diverging area of expressway interchange, and discuss the randomized complexity of drivers＇ multiple diverging choice behaviors, according to the way and location of the vehicle lane-changing, the diverging and lane-changing behaviors of drivers are quantitatively described, and the model selection tree and the linear utility function are determined. Selecting the characteristic variables of diverging area, including vehicle speed, acceleration, vehicle type, hourly traffic volume on ramp, time headway in deceleration lane, etc. , the two-level Nested Logit probability model for drivers accepting ramp diverging and drivers＇ diverging modes is established. Based on the radar tracking data of part of diverging areas of interchanges in Guangzhou - Hcyuan expressway, the model parameters are estimated by the phased estimation method. According to t-test result, the influence degree of the characteristic variables is judged, and the model is optimized. The result shows that （ 1 ） the choice behaviors of diverging at interchange is affected by multiple factors comprehensively; （2） the two-layer Nested Logit probability model is featured by a higher prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：交通工程 分流选择行为 Nested Logit概率模型 互通式立交 预测 

分 类 号：U412.352.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]