高管过度自信与创新可持续性的曲线关系研究  

The Curvilinear Relationship between Overconfidence of Top Managers and the Persistence of Firm Innovation

作　　者：周路路[1] 李婷婷[2] 李健[3] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,南京210096 [2]中国人民大学商学院,北京100872 [3]南京师范大学商学院,南京210023

出　　处：《科学学与科学技术管理》2017年第7期105-118,共14页Science of Science and Management of S.& T.

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71402024;71302118);教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目(12YJC630321);江苏民营经济研究基地(2106B01)

摘　　要：研发投入的突然削减或中断往往给企业带来巨大损失,高昂的调整成本昭示着持续创新的重要性。基于传统销售加速模型,研究探索了高管过度自信与企业创新可持续性之间的关系,并在此基础上讨论了业绩偏离及股权集中度的情境效应。以2003—2014年中国制造业A股上市公司为样本的实证结果显示:高管过度自信与企业创新持续投资之间存在倒U型曲线关系,适度的过度自信对企业持续创新具有促进作用,而严重过度自信会阻碍企业创新活动的持续开展;业绩偏离对两者之间的倒U型关系具有情境效应,但这种情境效应只体现在历史业绩偏离而非行业业绩偏离方面;股权的高度集中能够强化业绩偏离对高管过度自信与企业创新可持续性之间关系的调节效应。A sudden reduction or interruption of innovation investment usually brings huge losses to the enterprise because of the high adjustment costs, which means that to keep the persistence of firm innovation is of great sig-nificant. Based on the traditional Sales Accelerator Model, this study analyses the relation between executive＇s over-confidence and the persistence of firm innovation. Additionally, it discusses the context effects that the deviation of firm performance and ownership concentration may have. We use panel data of Chinese listed companies in manufacturing industry from 2003-2014 to examine these hypotheses, and the results show that there is an inver-ted U-shape relation between executive＇s overconfidence and the persistence of firm innovation, which means that moderate executives overconfidence can promote a persistent firm innovation whereas severe overconfidence will hinder it. The deviation of firm performance has a context effect on the inverted U-shape relation, but this kind of effect only reflects on the deviation of historical performance instead of the deviation of industry performance. Moreover, the ownership concentration will strengthen the context effect of the deviation of historical performance.

关 键 词：创新活动 过度自信 业绩偏离 股权集中度 

分 类 号：F272.91[经济管理—企业管理] F273.1[经济管理—国民经济]