中国大陆强震中期综合预测工作简介  

A brief introduction to comprehensive medium-term prediction about strong earthquakes in China's Mainland

作　　者：邵志刚[1] 武艳强[2] 江在森[1] 刘琦[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震预测研究所地震预测重点实验室,北京100036 [2]中国地震局第一监测中心,天津300180

出　　处：《国际地震动态》2017年第7期14-23,共10页Recent Developments in World Seismology

基　　金：地震行业专项(201408019)资助

摘　　要：中国地震预报从实践过程中逐渐摸索出长中短临渐进式预报工作模式,特别强调不同阶段工作的结合,而中期预测是联系中长期预测和短临预测的中间环节。本文基于现有地震大形势跟踪工作,简要介绍中国大陆强震中期预测的工作目标、资料依据、综合思路等,希望能起到抛砖引玉的作用,期望更多的研究者能对中期地震预测提供智力支持。The earthquake forecast in China has gradually formed the progressive working pattern with long-medium-imminent term in practice.It especially emphasizes the combination of different work stages,while the medium-term prediction is the intermediate step to link the long-medium term and imminent term prediction.Based on the present work of earthquake trend tracking,a brief introduction to the work goals,data basis and comprehensive thoughts of strong earthquakes＇ medium-term prediction in China's Mainland has been provided in this article.We hope this could broach the subject so that more researchers will provide their intellectual support for medium-term earthquake prediction.

关 键 词：地震预报 中期预测 地震大形势 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]