真实盈余管理的原因:一个前景理论的解释  

Reason of real earnings management:An explanation of prospect theory

作　　者：鲍学欣[1,2] 曹国华[1] 邢相春[2] 王鹏[1] BAO Xue-xin CAO Guo-hua Xing Xiang-chun WANG Peng(School of Economies and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, china Maritime College, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, china)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400044 [2]重庆交通大学航海学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2017年第3期45-51,共7页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(14BJY188);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(CDJSK1001;CQDXWL2013089)

摘　　要：本文利用2007-2012年间839个样本组成的面板数据,依据行为金融学中的"前景理论",在设定盈余管理双重阈值与市场阈值、盈余管理收益与风险(成本)的直线型关系与双对数型关系的基础上,实证检验了上市公司进行真实盈余管理的原因。研究发现,前景理论可以对中国上市公司真实盈余管理行为进行解释:在盈余管理盈利区间,收益与风险呈现出显著地正相关关系;在损失区间,收益与风险表现为显著地负相关关系;并且,收益区间的系数关系要平缓于损失区间。同时,本文研究还发现,上市公司利用真实盈余管理替代应计盈余管理的真实目的在于追逐更为稳定的盈余收益。Earnings management is defined as the behavior that the listed companies use accounting reports or real activities to manipulate a company＇s periodic reports, which are designed to mislead market investors into believing the company＇s performance deviation, and maximizing the value or management of the company. In recent years, with the increasing intensity of the external audit, it is more difficult for the listed companies to manipulate the accrued earnings management. Instead, they turn to manipulate real earnings management. Even as a replacement for accrued surplus, it must gain more revenue in the alternative process. Therefore, the Prospect Theory was adopted to analyze the real purpose that listed companies manipulate real earnings management. The panel data of 839 samples during 2007-2012 were used for empirical analysis based on the Prospect Theory in behavioral finance. In the paper, double threshold of earnings management and threshold of market, straight-type relationship of earnings management benefits and risks（cost）, and the relationship of dual logarithm were set to test the reasons that the listed companies manipulate real earnings management. The first part analyzes why the listed companies manipulate real earnings management based on the Prospect Theory. In addition, we consider that the management will clarify the gains and losses that real earnings management brings to listed companies, as well as the relationship between benefit（losses） and the cost in order to gain more revenue in the process of manipulating real earnings management. Meanwhile, we analyzed why the listed companies chose to replace accrued earnings management with real earnings management. In the second part, a study design under the Prospect Theory approach is built in which the corresponding regression model includes setting double threshold of earnings management and threshold of market, setting straight-type relationship of earnings management benefits and risks（cost） and the relationship of dual logarit

关 键 词：前景理论 真实盈余管理 应计盈余管理 

分 类 号：F276[经济管理—企业管理]