基于指数平滑法的GPS卫星钟差预报  

GPS Satellite Clock Bias Prediction Based on Exponential Smoothing Method

作　　者：王利[1,2] 张勤[1,2] 黄观文[1,2] 田婕[3] WANG Li ZHANG Qin HUANG Guanwen TIAN Jie(School of Geology Engineering and Geomatics, Chang＇an University, Xi＇an 710054, China Key Laboratory of Western China＇s Mineral Resources and Geological Engineering, Ministry of Education, Xi＇an 710054, China Centre for Geodetic Data Processing, National Administration of Surveying, Mapping and Geoinforrnation, Xi＇an 710054, China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,陕西西安710054 [2]西部矿产资源与地质工程教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710054 [3]国家测绘地理信息局大地测量数据处理中心,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（信息科学版）》2017年第7期995-1001,共7页Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家973计划(2014CB744700);国家自然科学基金(41104019;41274005;41202189;41304033);国家国土资源部国土资源大调查项目(1212011220186;1212011220142;12120114079101);中央高校基本科研业务费专项(310826172006;310826172202;310826173101)~~

摘　　要：提出了一种基于指数平滑法的GPS卫星钟差预报方法。该方法可采用少量数据建模,且计算过程简单、方便,尤其是在缺少相关历史数据或数据变化趋势不明显、不稳定的情况下,用该方法仍可取得较好的效果。通过与GPS卫星钟差预报中常用的二次多项式模型和灰色预测模型的对比分析,结果表明:指数平滑法适用于GPS卫星钟差的中、短期预报,其预报精度可达ns级;在利用小数据量建模的情况下,其预报效果优于二次多项式模型,与灰色模型的预报效果基本相当;该方法还可用于GPS卫星钟差的长期预报,其预报精度可达μs级,与灰色预测模型的精度相当。A new method of GPS satellite clock bias prediction based on exponential smoothing method（ESM）is presented in this paper.This new method can develop the prediction model successfully by using a small amount of data and has the advantages of easier calculation and convenience in operation.And the good results can still be acquired by this new method when the relevant historical data are absent or the changing trend of data is unobvious or unstable.By contrast with the quadratic polynomial model（QPM）and gray system model（GM）which are usually used in GPS satellite clock bias prediction,the calculating and analyzing results indicated that the ESM can be used in the medium-term and short-term prediction of GPS satellite clock bias and the prediction precision can reach up to nanosecond（ns）level.The prediction results of ESM are better than QPM but on the same level with GM when a small amount of data is used to establish the prediction model.And in the mean time,the ESM can also be used in the long-term prediction of GPS satellite clock bias and the prediction precision can reach up to microsecond（μs）level which is on the same level with GM.

关 键 词：指数平滑法 GPS 卫星钟差 预报 

分 类 号：P228.41[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]