甘肃陇南市泥石流灾害危险性及影响因子评价  

Assessment of Debris Flow Disaster Hazard and Influence Factors in Longnan District

作　　者：田丰[1] 张军[1,2] 冉有华[3] 刘金鹏[4] 柳思[1] 

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学资源与环境学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]甘肃省节水农业工程技术研究中心,甘肃兰州730070 [3]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,甘肃兰州730000 [4]甘肃省科学院地质自然灾害防治研究所,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《灾害学》2017年第3期197-203,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：中国科学院兰州分院院地合作项目"河西走廊经济带山洪地质灾害风险评价研究"(Y52BK51001);国家自然科学基金(41161066);甘肃省高校基本科研费(041013)

摘　　要：陇南市是中国四大泥石流灾害高发区之一,降水时空分布不均且时段集中,泥石流灾害频发。选取岩性硬度、高程标准差、坡度、3-11月降水量、6-9月0~24 h累计最大降水量、表层0~30 cm砂粒含量、表层0~30 cm粘粒含量、植被覆盖度和河网密度9个影响因子,基于2009年甘肃省地质灾害调查报告数据构建陇南市泥石流灾害危险性评价的Max Ent模型,模拟陇南市泥石流灾害危险性分布概率P,完成陇南市泥石流灾害危险性评价制图,探索影响因子作用机理。结果表明:Max Ent模型能应用于陇南市泥石流灾害危险性评价研究中,模拟效果表现良好。确定3-11月降水量、6-9月0~24 h累计最大降水量、河网密度、岩性硬度、坡度和表层0~30 cm粘粒含量6个主导因子,并以此为相关机构工程规划与设计提供支持。Longnan district is one of the four areas most likely to be hit by debris flow disasters in China, the space-time distribution of precipitation is uneven and concentrates on the special time quantum, debris flow disas- ter takes place frequently. Nine influence factors including Lithology Hardness, ESTD, Slope, Mar-Nov. Precipita- tion, Jun-Sep. 0- 24h Accumulation Maximum Precipitation, 0 -30cm Sand Content, 0 -30cm Clay Content, Vegetation Coverage, River Network Density were selected. The MaxEnt model of debris flow disaster hazard as- sessment in Longnan district based on Gansu province geological disaster investigation statistics data in 2009 was built, stimulated distribution probability P of debris flow disaster hazard in Longnan district. Finally, mapping of Longnan district debris flow disaster hazard assessment was accomplished, explored the mechanism that nine influ- ence factors acted to P. Result showed： MaxEnt model is able to apply to debris flow disasters hazard assessment in Longnan district, and the effect of stimulation is perfect ; Mar-Nov. Precipitation, Jun-Sep. 0 - 24h Accumulation Maximum Precipitation, River Network Density, Lithology Hardness, Slope, 0 -30cm Clay Content included is de- termined as the six main influence factors, which provides relevant agencies with the support of engineering plan- nin~ and design.

关 键 词：泥石流 危险性 评价 尺度 MaxEnt模型 甘肃陇南 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P642.2[天文地球—工程地质学]