警戒潮位核定中建立年极值水位序列的方法研究  

Precautions on the Establishment of Annual Extreme Water Level Series for Approved Warning Water Level

作　　者：李健[1] 刘清容[1] 连喜虎 焦艳[1] 黎舸[1] LI Jian LIU Qingrong LIAN Xihu JIAO Yan LI Ge(North China Sea Marine Forecasting Center, SOA, Qingdao 266061, China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局北海预报中心,青岛266061

出　　处：《海洋开发与管理》2017年第6期77-80,共4页Ocean Development and Management

基　　金：北海分局科技项目(2015B06)

摘　　要：文章以山东省警戒潮位核定为基础,对其沿岸验潮站的实测数据情况进行分类;根据不同类别,分别采用相关分析、数值模拟等方法补充实测数据,获得年极值水位序列,并采用极值Ⅰ型方法计算重现期高潮位。在警戒潮位核定中建立年极值水位序列所使用方法的顺序是,有实测数据优先采用实测数据、没有实测数据利用相关关系、没有相关关系再使用数值模拟和调和分析的方法进行。值得注意的是,在使用相关关系建立年极值水位序列中,计算重现期高潮位时一定要满足潮汐性质相同、所受风暴潮过程相似等条件;在使用数值模拟建立年极值水位序列中,须与其全年天文潮最大值进行对比。Accurate warning water level can effectively reduce disaster losses in storm surge hazards.In order to clarify the establishment of annual extreme water level series for approved warning water level,this paper classified the actual data of coastal tidal stations based on approved warning water level in Shandong Province and used correlation analysis,numerical simulation and other methods to supplement the different classification actual data which used to compute annual extreme water level series,respectively.Extreme-value type I method of the series was used to calculate High Tide Level in the return period.The order of the method used to establish the annual extreme water level sequence in the monitoring of the tide level is that the measured data are preferentially measured with the measured data,then is the correlation if there is no measured data,and the last is the use of numerical simulation and reconciliation analysis if there is no correlation.It is worth noting that in the use of the correlation between the establishment of the annual extreme water level sequence,the calculation of the high tide level of the reproduction must meet the same tidal nature,similar to the storm surge process and other conditions;the use of numerical simulation to establish the annual extreme water level sequence,should be compared with its an-nual maximum value of astronomical tide.

关 键 词：年极值水位序列 警戒潮位 海洋灾害 风暴潮 数值模拟 调和分析 

分 类 号：P741[天文地球—海洋科学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]