城市客运交通需求的系统动力学预测与分析  

Travel Demand Forecasting and Analysis in Urban Passenger Transportation System

作　　者：何南[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连交通大学交通运输工程学院,大连116028

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2017年第4期569-574,共6页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50978046);辽宁省博士科研启动基金项目(201601257)资助

摘　　要：为准确预测城市客运交通需求,从系统角度分析城市客运交通组成并甄选其影响因素,确定因素间因果回路关系.运用系统动力学构建城市客运交通系统模型,研究居民出行需求与道路供给、城市公共交通、私家车数量子系统之间的反馈关系.收集全国31个省市数据对模型参数进行标定,从而预测出行需求、私家车拥有量、道路里程等情况.结果显示,该模型具有很高的预测精度,同时说明公共交通优先政策是缓解城市交通拥挤的有效手段.In order to predict the sustainable urban passenger transportation system, travel demand forecasting in an accurate way is necessary. Based on the interaction among external environment, in- ternal environment, passenger traffic structure, and subsystem from system view, influencing factors are selected to construct the causal relationships. Then the model of urban passenger transportation system is constructed to research on the feedback relationships among travel demand, road supply, urban public transportation, and the number of private cars. Based on data collection from China, pa- rameters are calibrated, which is necessary to predict travel demand, the number of private cars, lane- kilometers and so on. Results show the high accuracy of model formation. Based on results analysis, the public transportation policy is an effective method to reduce traffic congestion in the urban passenger transportation system.

关 键 词：交通管理 交通需求 系统动力学 公共交通 交通拥挤 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]