Analysis of rear-end risk for driver using vehicle trajectory data  

基于车辆行驶轨迹的驾驶人追尾碰撞风险分析（英文）

作　　者：李亚平[1] 陆建[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,南京210096

出　　处：《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》2017年第2期236-240,共5页东南大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51478110)

摘　　要：To explore the relationship between rear-end crash risk and its influencing factors, on-road experiments were conducted for measuring the individual vehicle trajectory data associated with novice and experienced drivers. The rear-end crash potential probability based on the time to collision was proposed to represent the interpretation of rear-end crash risk.One-way analysis of variance was applied to compare the rearend crash risks for novice and experienced drivers. The rearend crash risk models for novice and experienced drivers were respectively developed to identify the effects of contributing factors on the driver rear-end crash risk. Also, the cumulative residual method was used to examine the goodness-of-fit of models. The results show that there is a significant difference in rear-end risk between the novice and experienced drivers.For the novice drivers, three risk factors including the traffic volume, the number of lanes and gender are found to significantly impact on the rear-end crash risk, while significant impact factors for experienced drivers are the vehicle speed and traffic volume. The rear-end crash risk models perform well based on the existing limited data samples.以探究专业及非专业驾驶人追尾碰撞风险影响因素为目的,通过采集真实道路环境下专业及非专业驾驶人跟驰行为轨迹数据,基于碰撞时间提出了表征追尾碰撞风险程度的追尾碰撞风险概率计算方法.利用单因素方差分析法对专业与非专业驾驶人追尾碰撞风险进行对比分析,并分别建立了专业与非专业驾驶人追尾碰撞风险模型,以识别专业与非专业驾驶人追尾碰撞风险影响因素,此外,基于累计残差法检验了模型的拟合优度.结果表明,专业及非专业驾驶人追尾碰撞风险存在显著差异.交通量、车道数及性别对非专业驾驶人追尾碰撞风险影响显著,而专业驾驶人追尾碰撞风险受车辆速度和交通显著影响.基于现有实验数据建立的驾驶人追尾碰撞风险模型具有较高的拟合优度.

关 键 词：rear-end risk novice driver experienced driver driving behavior 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]