基于经典概率密度的国际贸易均衡模型与实证  

Model and Empirical Analysis of International Trade Equilibrium Based on Classical Probability Density

作　　者：许晓军[1] 袁辉[1] 宁凯[1] 张雪[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳工业大学商贸学院,沈阳111003

出　　处：《统计与决策》2017年第15期18-22,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目(L15AJL008);辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学研究立项课题(W2013024;W2010313)

摘　　要：文章通过建立国际贸易均衡指数分布概率模型、正太分布概率模型、柯西分布概率模型、瑞利分布概率模型和均匀分布概率模型,认为一个国家的对外贸易均衡是"小概率事件"、"一个国家处于逆差或者顺差是正常的形态"。实证结果表明进出口围绕均衡上下波动,支持概率模型内容。Through the establishment of international trade equilibrium index probability model, normal distribution probability model, Cauchy probability model, Rayleigh probability model and uniform distribution probability model, this paper makes a conclusion that international trade equilibrium is a ＂small probability event＂, ＂deficit and surplus are normal state for any nation＂. The empirical research result shows that import and export fluctuate around the equilibrium, which is consistent with the probability model content.

关 键 词：国际贸易均衡 概率模型 顺差 密度函数 模型 

分 类 号：O211.9[理学—概率论与数理统计]