新疆哈密市近62年气温变化特征分析  

Analysis on the Temperature Change Characteristics in Hami of Xinjiang in Resent 62 Years

作　　者：张志高[1] 苗运玲 刘青利[1] 滕晓华[3] 丁浩[1] 刘雪[1] 

机构地区：[1]安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院,河南安阳455000 [2]新疆哈密市气象局,新疆哈密839001 [3]兰州大学资源环境学院西部环境教育部重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《新疆大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第3期339-344,共6页Journal of Xinjiang University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41602366;41571200)

摘　　要：根据1953—2014年哈密国家基准气象站的逐日气温观测资料,采用线性回归、趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验等方法分析了哈密市最近62a的气温变化特征.结果表明:哈密市近62a来气温呈上升趋势,平均气温上升率为0.14?C/10a,1986年以来升温趋势明显,1996年气温发生突变,1997—2014年年平均气温较之前上升0.68?C,近20a是哈密市气候显著变暖时期.62a来年最高气温和最低气温均呈显著升高趋势,上升幅度分别为0.29?C/10a、0.14?C/10a,最高气温的上升对平均气温的升高贡献最大.四季气温方面,冬季、春季和秋季平均气温均呈上升趋势,以冬季气温上升幅度最大,升温率为0.35?C/10a,春季和秋季次之,分别为0.14?C/10a和0.004?C/10a,夏季气温总体上呈微弱减小趋势,变化率为-0.095?C/10a,20世纪50年代的异常高温影响到了整个时段夏季气温倾向率的估计.各季气温突变方面,1961年冬季气温发生突变,春季气温突变发生于2003年,夏季和秋季无明显突变发生.Based on the climatic data of daily air temperature from Hami meteorological station during1953—2014, several methods such as linear regression, trend analysis and Mann-Kendall test are used to analyze the characteristics of temperature change in Hami City since the last 62 years. The results show that：during the latest 62 years in Hami, the temperature showed a rising trend, and the increasing rate of mean annual temperature was 0.14？C/10 a, since 1986, the warming trend was obvious, and the abrupt change in annual air temperature occured in 1996. The mean annual temperature during 1997—2014 was 0.68？C higher than before, the recent 20 years was a significant warming period. The annual maximum temperature and the minimum temperature also had increasing trends, and the increasing rates were 0.29？C/10 a, 0.14？C/10 a respectively, the annual maximum temperature showed a more obvious effect on increasing of mean annual temperature. For seasonal temperature, the winter, spring and autumn mean temperature showed an upward trend, with the most obvious warming occurring in winter, and the increasing rate reached 0.35？C/10 a,followed by the spring and autumn, and the increasing rates were 0.14？C/10 a, 0.004？C/10 a. Summer temperature generally showed a slight decreasing trend, the change rate was-0.095？C/10 a, the abnormal high temperature in 1950 s effect the whole summer temperature tendency rate. Analysis of abrupt change shows that the abrupt change in winter temperature occured in 1996, and the abrupt change of spring temperature occurred in 2003, summer and autumn had no obvious change.

关 键 词：气温变化 季变化 突变 MANN-KENDALL检验 哈密 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]