大宗胸段食管鳞癌根治术后的生存分析及模型预测  

Survival condition and predictive model in a large data of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

作　　者：郑伟慧[1] 杨迅[2] 周鑫明[2] 毛伟敏[2] 

机构地区：[1]苏州大学医学部第一临床医学院 [2]浙江省肿瘤医院胸部肿瘤中心,杭州310022

出　　处：《中华胸心血管外科杂志》2017年第5期290-294,共5页Chinese Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery

基　　金：国家自然科学基金（81172081）

摘　　要：目的 探讨胸段食管鳞癌根治术后患者的生存及影响预后的因素.方法 2000年1月1日至2010年1月1日,行食管胸段鳞癌根治术患者1 923例,男1 670例,女253例,年龄多为40～ 59岁（1 076/1 923,56.0％）.研究18个可能影响切除术预后的因素,通过Cox比例风险模型对术后患者预后进行多因素分析,计算预后指数,寿命表法统计累计生存率.结果 全组1、3、5年生存率分别为82％、48％、35％,中位生存期为35.42个月.Cox回归多因素分析表明,影响预后的独立因素为体质量指数、肿瘤长度、侵及深度、分化程度、淋巴结转移度、转移区域及有无术后并发症7个因素.结论 胸段食管鳞癌的预后受多重因素影响.预后指数公式能较好的预测患者生存.Objective The survival and prognosis factors of thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients after radical resection was investigated.Methods 1923 patients of thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after radical resection were included in our study from January 1th 2000 to January 1th 2010 in Zhejiang Cancer Hospital,1 670 male and 253 female.the age in the majority with 40 to 59 years old（1 076/1 923,56.0％）.Eighteen prognosis factors were collected.A multivariate analysis of these selected variables was performed using Cox proportional model and prognosis index.We used life table for accumulated survival rate.Results The accumulated survival rate for all patients were 82％,48％ and 35％ in 1 year,3 years and 5 years,respectively.Median survival time was 35.42 months.The significant prognosis factors included body mass index,length of tumor,depth of invasion,differentiation degree,lymph node metastatic degree and region,complication of surgery.Conclusion The prognosis of thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma was affected by multi-factors and prognosis index can predict survival condition.

关 键 词：食管肿瘤 鳞状细胞 预后 预测模型 

分 类 号：R735.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]