IPO业绩预期与可实现程度的信号机制——基于高科技企业IPO融资项目的视角  

IPO Performance Prediction and the Signal Mechanism of Its Realization——Based on the IPO of High-tech Companies

作　　者：唐清泉[1] 曾诗韵[1] 张丽拉[2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学管理学院,广东广州510275 [2]中山大学新华学院,广东广州510520

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2017年第9期12-20,共9页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71672204);广东省自然科学基金项目(2015A030313074);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目(GD13CGL06)资助的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：IPO募集项目预期业绩能否实现备受投资者和社会各界的关注。对此,文章以2000~2010年的高科技企业为样本,研究了企业IPO信息披露中,哪些信息对募集项目预期业绩的实现有预测作用,为投资者决策和改进监管机制提供参考依据。研究发现,招股说明书上披露的IPO募集项目预期业绩大小与IPO预期业绩实现程度呈显著的负相关性,这说明上市企业会披露过高的IPO募集项目预期业绩,预示着IPO募集项目预期业绩实现程度低,是不利信号,而IPO项目预期业绩实现程度与上市前拥有的发明专利呈显著的正相关关系,是有利信号。IPO项目预期业绩实现程度与上市前的历史财务业绩信息不具有相关性,这表明作为上市定价重要依据的财务业绩信息对实现预期业绩的预测力较弱。对此,投资者应更关注IPO招股说明书的预期业绩高低和专利信息,以判断IPO预期业绩的可实现程度。Whether IPO performance prediction can be realized attracts much attention from investors and al l walks of life. Therefore , this paper, taking the performance of high-tech companies from 2000 to 2010 as sample, investigates what kinds of information in the information disclosure can help us to predict the realization of IPO performance prediction so as to provide some reference for the decision-making of the investors and the supervision mechanisms. The results show that there is a negative correlation between the disclosed expected profits of the IPO and the realization degree of performance prediction, which indicates that listed companies may disclose too high IPO performance prediction and indicates the realization degree will be low, and this is not a good signal for investors. The number of the pre-IPO patents of invention is positively correlated to the realization of performance prediction, so it is a good signal. The pre -IPO financial performance has no relationship with the realization of performance prediction, so this means that the pre-IPO financial performance has weak predictive validity about the realization of IPO performance prediction. Therefore, in order to make good judgment about the realization degree, investors should pay more attention to the disclosed expected profits of IPO and the pre-IPO patents of invention.

关 键 词：IPO业绩预期 IPO业绩实现 财务信息 发明专利信息 

分 类 号：F275.5[经济管理—企业管理]