旅游目的地形象广告效应分析:基于双重差分模型的估计  

The Effect of Image Advertising in Tourism Destinations:A Difference-in-Differences Estimation

作　　者：刘鹏[1,2] 吴华清[3] 江兵[3] 郭强[4] LIU Peng WU Huaqing JIANG Bing GUO Qiang(School of Hotel Administration, Shanghai Business School, Shanghai 200238, China School of Hotel Administration, Cornell University, Ithaca 14853, USA School of Economics, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230601, China College of Applied Science and Technology, Hainan University, Danzhou 571737, China)

机构地区：[1]上海商学院酒店管理学院,上海200238 [2]美国康奈尔大学酒店管理学院,纽约州伊萨卡14853 [3]合肥工业大学经济学院,安徽合肥230601 [4]海南大学应用科技学院,海南儋州571737

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2017年第8期38-47,共10页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于旅行社产品设计的旅游供应链协调与竞争研究"(71161008)以及"动态环境下决策单元效率评价方法与应用研究"(71471053)资助~~

摘　　要：文章运用我国10个省120个地市2005—2009年的相关旅游经济数据,对各省在中央电视台(CCTV)投放的区域旅游目的地形象广告的效果进行实证研究。利用同期内连续投放广告与从未投放广告的样本差异,构建双重差分模型估计省域形象广告投放政策对各省旅游产出的影响。研究发现,在样本期间内,央视旅游形象广告的投放能够显著促进该省国内旅游人次和收入的增长。在稳定性检验中剔除广告费用后,广告投放政策对国内旅游的毛收入依旧较显著,并具有一定的长期效应。文章最后给出了相关政策建议。In recent years, cooperative image advertisement for the tourism destination（CIATD） on China Central Television（CCTV） has increasingly become the popular way to develop regional tourism brand in China. However, so far few literatures have focused on the specific effect of the provincial CIATD on the regional tourism development. To this end, using the panel data set of 10 provinces including 120 cities from 2005 to 2009 in China, this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effectiveness of CCTV CIATD based on the difference-in-differences（DID） models. Specifically, this paper firstly divides the total sample provinces into two groups： the treated groups, i.e. the continuous advertising provinces, and the untreated groups, i.e. the non-advertising provinces. Then, this paper compares the difference in outcomes after and before the treatment for treated groups to the same difference for untreated groups. The empirical results show that：（1） The provincial CIATD significantly promotes the tourism industry outputs for tourism destination;（2） The highway mileages between tourists＇ origins and destinations increase more outputs of the tourism industry than the provincial CIATD does;（3） There is no confirmed relationship between the destinations＇ local economic level and the output of tourism industry;（4） The destinations＇ local green areas significantly increase the tourism industry outputs. After discussing the rationality of DID methods, to avoid the impact from different controlled variables selection this paper makes some necessary robust tests by replacing explained variables and changing the execution time of the advertisement policy. The empirical test results are also significant, confirming the robustness of the above conclusion. Finally,this paper discusses the function mechanism of CIATD. That is, the development of destination tourism industry with CIATD is driven by three main paths, including space-driven development, market-driven development and interest-driven

关 键 词：旅游目的地 形象广告 双重差分估计 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理] F713.8[经济管理—产业经济]