近200年来秦岭2-4月历史气温重建与空间差异  

Reconstruction of the historical temperature from February to April of the Qinling Mountains in recent 200 years

作　　者：侯丽[1,2] 李书恒[1,2] 陈兰[1,2] 史阿荣 白红英[1,2] 王俊[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与环境学院,西安710127 [2]西北大学陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,西安710127

出　　处：《地理研究》2017年第8期1428-1442,共15页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家林业公益性行业科研专项(201304309);陕西省自然科学基金项目(2014JQ5172);黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放基金(SKLLQG1611)

摘　　要：利用改进的PPR(point-by-point regression)方法,将气温相关系数图与搜索圆进行加权平均得到搜索系数图,选取出秦岭气象站点与气温显著相关的树轮宽度年表,重建了秦岭地区32个气象站点1835-2013年冬末初春2-4月的平均气温。同时在考虑到南北坡差异的影响下,采用基于DEM的克里金(Kriging)插值法,将各气象站点重建序列进行插值,获取了秦岭的历史气温面域数据。取通过检验气象站点重建序列的平均值作为秦岭近200年来2-4月历史气温,重建结果表明:近200年来秦岭地区存在1835-1869年、1874-1886年、1918-1925年、1960-1998年四次偏冷期以及1887-1917年、1926-1959年、1999-2013年三次偏暖期。小波分析显示重建序列存在2~3年、2~5年、7~11年、11年准周期变化。秦岭南北坡冬末初春气候变化整体趋势较一致,但以1959年为转折点,1959年之前北坡较南坡气温变化剧烈,之后南坡比北坡剧烈。插值结果表明秦岭气温受地形影响显著,偏冷期的气温波动值比暖期低1℃左右,偏暖期的最低温有逐渐上升趋势。从空间差异来看插值结果发现坡向差异较为明显,北坡气温变化幅度除1960-1998年偏冷期为16.57℃外,基本呈缩小趋势,而南坡无明显变化。In the study, we applied a revised PPR（point-by-point regression） method to obtain the search coefficient chart based on the weighted average values of the temperature-related coefficients and the search circles. The tree-ring width chronologies significantly correlated with the air temperature of the meteorological stations in the Qinling Mountains region were selected to reconstruct the average temperatures from February to April during 1835-2013 at 32 meteorological stations. Considering the variations between the north and south slopes, the reconstructed sequences of the meteorological stations were interpolated by the Kriging based on DEM. The average values of the reconstructed sequence of the meteorological stations were used as the historic temperatures from February to April during recent 200 years in the Qinling Mountains region. The reconstructed results show that： in the 200 years, the Qinling Mountains region experienced four colder periods（1835-1869, 1874-1886, 1918-1925 and 1960-1998）,and three warmer periods（1887-1917, 1926-1959 and 1999-2013）. Wavelet analysis indicates that there were multi-scale cycles such as 2 to 3 years, 2 to 5 years, 7 to 11 years and 11 years in the reconstructed sequence. The overall trend of temperature change on the north and south slopes of the Qinling Mountains is consistent with that from late winter to early spring, and 1959 is the turning point. The temperature on the north slope changed more sharply than that on the south slope before 1959, while the more severe opposite characteristic occurred after 1959. The interpolation results show that the temperatures of the Qinling Mountains were significantly affected by the topographic factor. The range of about 1 ℃ in the colder period is lower than that in the warmer period. In addition, there was a rising trend of the lowest temperatures in the warmer period. The interpolation results show significant differences between the north and south slopes. The ranges of temperature on the north slope presented

关 键 词：改进PPR 树轮宽度 气温重建 历史气温插值 

分 类 号：P423.32[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]