气候变化下新安江-富春江水电站径流响应模拟及适应性调度研究  

Study on runoff response simulation and adaptive scheduling of Xin'anjiang-Fuchunjiang hydropower station under climate change

作　　者：闻昕[1,2] 丁紫玉 方国华[1] 雷晓辉[2] 王浩[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《水资源保护》2017年第4期10-19,共10页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51609061);长江科学院开放研究基金(CKWV2016370/KY);水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室开放合作基金(SKHL1621);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目

摘　　要：评估了气候变化对新安江-富春江水电站控制流域径流的影响,提出不同气候变化情景下的适应性调度方案,并对不确定性进行了分析。结果表明,2016—2099年,新安江水库流域径流量预计降幅为5.4%~5.8%,金华江流域径流量预计增幅为6.2%~7.5%,衢江流域径流量的预计增幅在0.8%以内。在适应性调度模式下,新安江-富春江水电站未来总发电量比常规调度提高3.43%~3.85%,新安江和富春江水电站的最大下泄流量可分别下降22.74%~33.29%和16.57%~17.63%,两电站总弃水量降幅可达81.61%~99.99%和52.98%~58.64%,综合效益显著,且该调度模式对于辐射强度以及不同模式间的不确定性具有良好的适应性。We evaluated the impact of climate change on the runoff of the Xin＇anjiang-Fuchunjiang hydropower station basin, put forward the adaptive scheduling scheme under different climate change scenarios, and analyzed the uncertainty.The results show that, during 2016-2099, the runoff of Xin＇anjiang Reservoir Basin will decrease by 5.4%-5.8%, and the runoff of the Jinhua River Basin and Qujiang River Basin will increase by 6.2%-7.5% and less than 0.8%, respectively.Under the adaptive scheduling mode, the total generating capacity of the Xin＇anjiang-Fuchunjiang hydropower station is expected to increase by 3.43%-3.85% compared with the conventional dispatching.The maximum discharge of the Xin＇anjiang and Fuchunjiang hydropower stations will decrease by 22.74%-33.29% and 16.57%-17.63%, respectively.The total abandoned water of the two hydropower stations will decrease by 81.61%-99.99% and 52.98%-58.64%, respectively.In addition, the scheduling mode adapts well to the radiation intensity and the uncertainty among different GCMs.

关 键 词：径流 BCSD降尺度 水文模拟 自适应遗传算法 不确定性 新安江-富春江水电站 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]